NFL Late Games Report: Sharp Betting Action

Dec 15, 2013

The NFL betting market is fluid on game day as professional betting groups and small-time amateur bettors are making their preferences known.  We covered in a previous blog article that a well-respected betting group moved a substantial amount of money on Miami earlier in the week as small home underdogs, and now the Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites as of Sunday morning.  Let’s take a look at the late afternoon games that have attracted the most money from both profession and amateur bettors:

NFL Teams Favored by Public Money:

  • Carolina Panthers (-10)
  • Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
  • New Orleans Saints (-6)

NFL Teams Favored by Sharp Money:

  • Oakland Raiders (+6)
  • Green Bay Packers (+5)
  • New York Jets (+10)

While the betting public is betting the Saints as if they know the final score, sharps are staying away from that particular game even though New Orleans is 24-14 SU on the road during the regular season, including 15-5 SU versus teams with a losing record.  Pro Edge also thinks it’s worthwhile to note that the Rams are a dreadful 3-25 SU and 5-22-1 ATS at home following a division game when marched up against a .500 or greater opponent.

Pittsburgh is another intriguing matchup tonight in that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is an impressive 16-6 ATS as an underdog versus opponents off a win, including 13-3 SU and 14-2 ATS versus an .875 or worse foe.  Our technical database chimes in with this beauty as well: road favorites with a win percentage of less than .875 that are three games or more above .500 against-the-spread for the season and played the previous week are just 82-148-5 ATS from Game 7 on against a home team with a win percentage of .301 or greater.  The foregoing situation improves to 34-75-2 ATS if the home underdog has a losing record against-the-spread [play on Tampa Bay, Tennessee, New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers].

As for Kansas City, it is hard to ignore the fact that the Chiefs are 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS as division favorites since 2007.  As of Sunday morning, the team that was attracting the heaviest amount of professional money was Green Bay, which makes sense in that the Cowboys are a dreadful 2-17 ATS non-division favorites from Game Thirteen out.