Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Betting Report & Free Picks for Saturday, January 18, and Sunday, January 19. Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on this weekend’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions UNDER 55.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL playoff teams with excellent red zone conversion rates (greater than 63%) are 41-24 to the Under (63.1%), including 24-9 UNDER (72.7%) since 2017, going under by an average of -5.4 points per game. Since 2013, NFL teams averaging six or more yards per play are 462-366-23 to the Under (55.8%) from Week 5 forward. Since 2015, NFL teams playing two or more consecutive road games are 419-335-20 to the Under (55.6%), including 343-263-15 UNDER (56.6%) since 2017. Since 1998, NFL teams coming off an upset win as underdogs with short rest are 146-117-8 to the Under (55.5%). Since 2010, NFL playoff teams entering off an upset win as underdogs are 41-26-1 to the Under (61.2%), including 16-6-1 UNDER (72.7%) since 2020, going under by an average of -5.1 points per game. Since 2011, NFL underdogs coming off a playoff win as underdogs are 25-14-1 to the Under (64.1%), including 11-4-1 UNDER (73.3%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of -6.1 points per game.
Since 1993, NFL teams coming off two or more consecutive unders are 108-71-6 to the Under (60.3%) from Week 11 forward if they have gone under the total in 56% or more of their games, including 16-7-2 UNDER (69.6%) since 2018, going under by an average of -4.7 points per game. Since 2005, NFL playoff home favorites of -7 to -9.5 points are 34-23 to the Under (59.6%). Since 2011, playoff home teams not favored by double-digits averaging 30 or more points per game are 19-12 to the Under (61.3%), including 12-5 UNDER (70.6%) since 2018, going under by an average of -6.0 points per game. NFL games with totals of 50 or more points are 39-23-1 to the Under (62.9%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season. Finally, NFL playoff games with totals of 55 or more points are 8-4 to the Under (66.7%).
Los Angeles Rams (+6) (-110) at Philadelphia Eagles
Report: Since 1996, .801 or greater NFL teams are 179-239-4 ATS (42.8%) from Week 13 forward, including 43-65 ATS (39.8%) since 2018. Since 2007, .750 or greater playoff teams are just 66-86-2 ATS (43.4%), including 15-21 ATS (41.7%) since 2020. Since 2003, .750 or greater playoff teams are 61-87-2 ATS (41.2%) versus opponents with a worse win percentage. Since 1989, .750 or greater NFL teams coming off three or more consecutive games in which they allowed fourteen points or less are 53-73-5 ATS (42.1%) from Week 7 forward. Since 2003, NFL teams with an ATS win percentage of .600 or worse are 180-144-5 ATS (55.6%) vs. .700 or greater opponents with an ATS win percentage of .600 or better from Week 14 out. Divisional Round underdogs seeking same-season revenge are 16-7-1 ATS since 1996, including 9-1 ATS when they own a .625 or worse win percentage.
Since 2014, NFL home teams coming off a win as favorites that won eleven or more games the previous season are 77-100-1 ATS (43.5%) if they’ve averaged more than 23.5 points per game over their last three games. Since 2008, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points are 122-94-2 ATS (56.5%) in games with totals of 40.5 to 46.5 points, including 40-24 ATS (62.5%) since 2019. Since 1989, NFL playoff teams with same-season revenge for a loss in which they allowed 28 or more points are 47-31-3 ATS (60.3%). Since 2017, NFL playoff underdogs are 52-37-2 ATS (58.4%), including 12-7 ATS (63.2%) since 2023, covering the total by an average of +5.6 points per game.
Since 2005, NFL playoff teams coming off three or more consecutive SU and ATS wins in which they allowed fewer than fourteen points in each are 1-6-1 ATS (14.3%), failing to cover the spread by an average of -12.9 points per game. Since 2000, NFL playoff favorites coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins are 44-59-2 ATS (42.7%). Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay is 15-7-1 ATS (68.2%) when playing with short rest, exceeding market expectations by an average of +4.7 points per game. The Rams are 16-5 SU and 16-4 ATS when playing with short rest since 2018. The Rams are 10-3 SU and 12-1 ATS in their last thirteen rematch road affairs and 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS since their bye week in mid-October.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 44 points (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph and temperatures of at least 30 degrees are 934-741-38 to the Under (55.8%), including 442-310-16 UNDER (58.8%) since 2018, covering the total by an average margin of -1.5 points per game. Since 1998, NFL teams coming off an upset win as underdogs with short rest are 146-117-8 to the Under (55.5%). Since 2010, NFL playoff teams entering off an upset win as underdogs are 41-26-1 to the Under (61.2%), including 16-6-1 UNDER (72.7%) since 2020, going under by an average of -5.1 points per game. Since 2011, NFL underdogs coming off a playoff win as underdogs are 25-14-1 to the Under (64.1%), including 11-4-1 UNDER (73.3%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of -6.1 points per game. Since 1989, NFL playoff underdogs of less than ten points entering off a postseason game as underdogs are 12-3-1 to the Under (80%) in games with wind speeds of at least 7 mph, going under by an average of -7.6 points per game. Since 1989, NFL playoff road teams coming off a game in which they scored one or more defensive touchdowns and committed fewer than two turnovers are 29-9 to the Under (76.3%).
Since 1990, NFL road teams coming off three consecutive home games are 133-90-1 to the Under (59.6%) in games with totals of less than 47 points, including 38-18-1 UNDER (67.9%) since 2016. Since 1989, NFL road underdogs of greater than four points coming off an upset win as underdogs by seventeen or more points are 51-32-2 to the Under (61.4%). The Eagles are 20-3 to the Under (87%) since 2010, in January affairs, including 9-0 UNDER since January 9, 2022. The Rams are 105-84-4 to the Under (55.6%) since 2007, in games with totals of less than 46 points, including 47-36-1 UNDER (56.6%) since 2015.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills UNDER 51.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL games with wind speeds of greater than 8 mph and temperatures of at least 30 degrees are 934-741-38 to the Under (55.8%), including 442-310-16 UNDER (58.8%) since 2018, covering the total by an average margin of -1.5 points per game. Since 2013, NFL teams averaging six or more yards per play are 462-366-23 to the Under (55.8%) from Week 5 forward. Since 2000, NFL playoff road teams averaging 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt are 45-27 to the Under (62.5%), including 16-6 UNDER (72.7%) since 2018, going under by an average of -3.9 points per game. Since 1989, NFL playoff teams with excellent red zone conversion rates (greater than 63%) are 41-24 to the Under (63.1%), including 24-9 UNDER (72.7%) since 2017, going under by an average of -5.4 points per game.
Since 1989, NFL playoff teams averaging 3 or more sacks per game are 53-39-1 to the Under (57.6%), including 21-13-1 UNDER (61.8%) since 2018. Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 234-180-7 to the Under (56.5%), including 82-57-3 to the Under (59%) when favored by less than seven points since 2022. Since 2015, non-divisional road favorites coming off a SU and ATS win in games with totals of greater than 40 points are 132-108-4 to the Under (55%), including 42-29-1 UNDER (59.2%) since 2022. Since 2014, NFL playoff home underdogs are 11-5 to the Under (68.8%). Baltimore head coach Jim Harbaugh is 17-5 to the Under (77.3%) in January affairs since 2012.
Baltimore’s offense had a 46% rush success rate (2nd-best) during the regular season behind Derrick Henry, who finished with 562 rushing yards over expectation. However, the Bills’ defense ranks eighth in EPA per play against designed runs and will be better defending passes to opposing running backs with the return of linebacker Matt Milano, who missed thirteen games this season. In Baltimore’s four postseason defeats, quarterback Lamar Jackson has averaged just 10.5 points, failing to eclipse the 20-point mark. Buffalo’s attack boasts a 45% rush success rate (5th) but will be contained by a stout Ravens’ stop unit that held teams to a league-low 15.4 points per game over the past seven weeks. Baltimore’s defense ranked first (minus-0.15) in EPA allowed per opponent dropback in Weeks 11-18 after head coach John Harbaugh benched safeties Marcus Williams and Eddie Jackson and employed Kyle Hamilton as a safety on 69.3% of his snaps.
Since 2007, NFL playoff games with point spreads between -3 and +3 are 34-24 to the Under (58.2%). Since 2014, NFL teams coming off a game in which they had 47 or more rushing attempts are 23-11-1 to the Under (67.6%). The Ravens are 92-50-2 to the Under (64.8%) since 1989 on the road following a game in which they had 17:90 or more minutes of possession time, including 27-13-1 UNDER (67.5%) since 2018, going under by an average of -3.7 points per game. Since 2011, NFL playoff home teams not favored by double digits are 19-12 to the Under (61.3%), provided they are averaging 30 or more points per game, including 12-5 UNDER (70.6%) since 2018, going under by an average of -6.0 points per game. NFL games with totals of 50 or more points are 39-23-1 to the Under (62.9%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season.
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