NFL Conference Championship Round Betting Trends

Jan 30, 2022

Championship Round Situational Trends Since 1980

Road teams coming off a Divisional Round road game (Bengals and 49ers) are 13-28 SU and 17-24 ATS.  Home teams with a better record (Chiefs and Rams) are 46-19 SU and 37-27-1 ATS.  Teams that scored 16 or fewer points in the divisional round (49ers) are 7-2 ATS.  Teams with revenge that scored 30-plus points in the Divisional Round (Chiefs and Rams) are 3-8-1 ATS as favorites

Home teams in NFC title games (Rams) are 28-13 SU and 23-17-1 ATS, including 5-1 SU and ATS versus division foes.  Home teams in AFC title games (Chiefs) are 28-13 SU and 23-18 ATS, including 2-4 ATS after scoring 40-plus points in Divisional Round games

Since 1966, NFL teams favored by at least 7 points are 24-17 ATS in conference championship games. The last favorite of at least four points to be upset in the Conference Championship game was New England (-8) in 2012 against Baltimore.

Teams to pull off betting upsets in the Wild Card and Divisional rounds are a solid 9-6 ATS in conference championship games in the Super Bowl era.

Current and Historical NFL Playoff Trends

Favorites are 6-4 ATS this postseason but were 1-3 SU and ATS in the Divisional Round. Unders are 6-4 this postseason (2-2 in Divisional Round). Home teams are 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS in Conference Championship games in the past eight seasons. Overs are 8-2 in Conference Championship Games in the previous five seasons, including 4-0 in the previous two seasons.

Regular-Season Statistical Trends in Conference Title Games

Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS since 2010 in conference championship games. Conference championship teams with an advantage in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are 22-16 SU and 23-15 ATS over the last nineteen seasons.

Teams with an edge in defensive pass efficiency are 23-15 SU and 24-14 ATS since 2003 in conference title games; teams that allowed fewer yards per play are 23-15 SU and 24-14 ATS in AFC and NFC title games.

Additional Trends in Conference Title Games

Teams that scored sixteen or fewer points in the divisional round are 7-2 ATS, while teams with revenge that scored 30-plus points in the divisional round are 3-8-1 ATS as favorites.  Playoff teams coming off consecutive underdog playoff wins are 15-8-1 ATS, including 12-4 ATS since 1990.

Since 1970, there have been 22 instances of a team winning both regular-season games and then meeting a third time in the postseason.  One of the teams has completed a three-game sweep 14 times.