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NFL Betting Trends Through Week 5 of the 2021-22 Season

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NFL Betting Trends Thus Far in 2021 

The betting public finally had itself a week as the top five teams in the NFL against the spread all covered in their Week 5 games. Arizona, Buffalo, Dallas, Green Bay, and the Los Angeles Chargers are a combined 21-4 ATS this season. Bettors backing them in Week 5 scored some big victories. Cowboys’ backers have to be happy with the team’s 5-0 ATS record thus far.  

This is just one of many interesting betting trends thus far in the 2021 NFL season. Here’s what else to keep an eye on as the season moves into its next quarter. 

Fade the Rookie QB 

There are now six rookie quarterbacks starting games in the NFL in 2021. Davis Mills was thrust into the starting lineup after an injury to Houston’s Tyrod Taylor. The same occurred in Chicago where Justin Fields took over for Andy Dalton. 

Fields was awful in his first start going 6-of-20 and getting sacked nine times. It’s not surprising that the Bears did not cover in that game. Fields and the Bears actually won in Week 5 though pulling the upset of the Raiders.  

Mills was equally awful in his first start but, like Fields, the Texans rookie was able to help Houston cover against another rookie quarterback, Mac Jones of New England, last week. Fields and Mills were the only two rookie quarterbacks whose teams covered the spread in Week 5.  

Fading the rookie quarterback is definitely a trend to follow this season. Combined, the six rookies are just 6-13 ATS so far.  

QBs to Back 

While bettors might shy away from rookie quarterbacks, there are a handful that command backing. Teddy Bridgewater, for example, has covered over 71 percent  (38-14-1) of the games he has started in the NFL.  The only other quarterback with more than two years of experience and a cover percentage of 60 percent or higher is Buffalo’s Josh Allen. He is 30-20 ATS in his career. 

Tom Brady (202-141-8 ATS) and Aaron Rodgers (121-87-6) are still very much worthy of bettors’ backing. Though they are still young, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa is 7-4 ATS and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow is 8-5-1. 

Going Under 

The Under went 6-10 last week but, for the season, the Under is 42-37. If you focus on just primetime games, you find a trend that is worth watching. There have been 15 primetime games thus far in 2021. The Under is now 9-6. 

Going back to last year, the Under was 28-19-1 in 48 primetime games in the 2020 season. Take it back one more year. In 2019, the Under was 31-17-1 in 49 primetime games.  

It’s an interesting trend because scoring has been on the rise in the NFL over the past half-decade. Last season, the NFL set a record for scoring as teams averaged 49.6 points per game. In each season from 2017 to 2020, per game scoring rose each year.

Despite this increase in scoring, premium games played in primetime in front of millions of people, have had the tendency to go Under the posted game total. It’s an interesting trend and one bettors should continue to monitor.