NFL Betting Trends to Watch

Nov 12, 2023

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One of the biggest betting trends in the NFL this season has been the number of games that have gone Under the total. For the season, Unders are cashing at 61.5% across the league. Will this continue? It’s likely that the numbers adjust in the other direction over the second half of the season, but there will still be plenty of opportunities to cash on the Under.

The crazy number of Unders this season isn’t the only thing to watch. There are a number of other trends that bettors should keep an eye on this season. Here’s a look.

The Panthers & the First Quarter Spread

Carolina is awful against the number this season. In addition to being 1-8 SU, the Panthers are 2-6-1 ATS. However, there is one area where bettors should consider backing Carolina – the first quarter spread.

The Panthers are 8-1 ATS in the first quarter through eight games. They have only been outscored in the first quarter once this season. With just 2.5 first-quarter points allowed, they are fourth in the league and have shut out three opponents in a row. They covered the 1Q spread again last night, jumping out to a 7-3 lead.

The Patriots Struggle Against the Number

What if you just fade the Patriots against the spread each week? If you did that for their past 16 games, you’d be 13-3. Yes, New England is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games. There is nothing really to like about the Patriots. Mac Jones and the offense rank 31st in the league in scoring, averaging 15.0 points a game. The defense is not a typical Bill Belichick-coached unit allowing 25.3 points per game. That ranks 26th in the NFL.

Somehow, New England opened as a favorite over Indianapolis in the NFL’s final Germany game. That has since flipped to the Colts -1. Despite the Pats’ reputation for having a strong defense, three of their previous six opponents have scored more than 31 points against them. The Colts are the only team in the NFL this season that has scored at least 20 points in each game.

Titans & Bucs – Bet the Under

If you combine the Titans and Bucs’ last 12 games, 10 of them have gone Under the total. The two teams play Sunday and the total is set at 39.5 right now. Bettors should consider the Under, for good reason.

Bucs home games average a combined score of just 33.8 points. Tennessee’s road games have averaged 35.2 combined points. The two teams rank 22nd and 24th in the league in scoring and their defenses rank second and third in red zone defense. Scoring may be exceedingly difficult for both teams.

49ers After a Bye

If you’re picking the Niners just because they are fresh and coming off a bye, you might want to re-check your thinking. San Francisco is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 games the week after having a bye. Current head coach Kyle Shanahan wasn’t around for the majority of those games, but he is still just 2-4 ATS after a bye.

The 49ers are a 3-point road favorite at Jacksonville. The Jags have won and covered the spread in five straight games.

Ravens Home Under

Remember, the Under is hitting at a ridiculous number right now. One place where the Under cashes a lot is M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. In the Ravens’ last 14 home games, the Under is 12-2. This Sunday, the top two defenses in the NFL – the Browns and Ravens

The Ravens have held three different opponents to fewer than 10 points. One of those was Cleveland back on Oct. 1. Baltimore won 28-3. The Browns have the best defense in the NFL and the Under is 10-5 in Cleveland’s last 15 games. In their last two head-to-head meetings, the Browns and Ravens have produced 31 and 16 points.

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