Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Thanksgiving NFL betting preview and free picks report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7.5) (-110)
Report: Detroit is a favorite on Thanksgiving for the first time since 2016, which is significant in that favorites are 46-8 SU and 36-18 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2004. Since 1990, Thanksgiving favorites of seven or more points are 27-4 SU and 23-8 ATS. Detroit head coach Dan Campbell is 34-22 ATS in his career, while quarterback Jared Goff is 20-9 ATS at home since 2020 and 24-14-1 ATS versus divisional opponents in his career. Detroit is 8-0 SU as a favorite on Thanksgiving in the past 30 years.
Since 2000, NFL home favorites with a bye on deck are 248-191-8 ATS (56.5%), including 91-62-4 ATS (59.5%) since 2016. Since 1998, .800 or worse NFL favorites coming off a game in which they had 75 or more rushing yards with extended rest on deck are 179-100-6 ATS (64.2%) versus .300 or greater teams, including 80-32-3 ATS (71.4%) since 2015, covering the spread by an average margin of +4.1 points per game. Since 1994, NFL underdogs with short rest coming off an upset win as underdogs are 59-82-3 ATS (41.8%), including 16-32 ATS (33.3%) since 2016.
Since 1989, divisional favorites coming off a divisional game are 96-68-4 ATS (58.5%) in games with totals of more than 45 points from Week 8 out, including 44-20-1 ATS (68.8%) since 2015, covering the spread by an average of +5.3 points per game. Since 1995, Thursday underdogs coming off an upset win as underdogs are just 16-30 ATS (34.8%) since 1995, including 3-14 ATS (17.6%) since 2015, falling short of market expectations by an average of -4.44 points per game.
Detroit tight end Sam LaPorta is averaging 0.26 EPA/play (6th-best among qualified tight ends) and is primed for a productive afternoon against a Packers’ defense that is conceding a 35.3% rush success rate to tight ends this season. Green Bay is 3-3 SU and ATS all-time on Thanksgiving and has lost four consecutive games to the Lions. Since 2017, the Packers are just 2-11 ATS versus Detroit. Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love’s 59.7% completion percentage through Week 11 is the lowest for any Packers quarterback (minimum 300 pass attempts) since Brett Favre in 2006.
Finally, Green Bay running back Aaron Jones is out with a sprained MCL and Love and averaging 0.20 EPA/play less without Jones this season.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NFL home favorites of more than seven points are 39-18-1 ATS (68.4%) with fewer than five days of rest, including 10-4 ATS (71.4%) since 2018. Since 1989, NFL favorites of eleven or more points with fewer than five days of rest are 20-5-1 ATS (80%), covering the spread by an average margin of +6.31 points per game. Since 1983, NFL favorites of more than ten points are a perfect 11-0 ATS on Thanksgiving. In the Wild Card era, Thanksgiving favorites of at least a touchdown are 27-4 SU and 23-8 ATS.
Since 2010, NFL road underdogs of more than ten points are 95-143-5 ATS (39.9%), including 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) since 2020. Since 2004, NFL teams coming off a game in which had five or more turnovers are 98-130-11 ATS (43%), including 12-22-2 ATS (35.3%) since 2018. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott is 29-11-1 ATS as a favorite of six or more points, including 12-3 ATS versus NFC East foes. Prescott is 26-11 ATS versus NFC East opponents compared to just 36-38-2 ATS against all other divisions. The Cowboys are 59-29-2 ATS (67%) versus .500 or worse opposition since 2014, including 5-1 ATS this season.
Prescott is 34-10 SU and 30-13-2 ATS versus teams with losing records compared to just 21-23 SU and 17-27 ATS versus .501 or greater opponents. Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy is 60-39 ATS versus division opponents, including 50-27 ATS as a divisional favorite. The Cowboys are 23-8-1 ATS (74.2%) as favorites of three or more points coming off a win in which they scored 21-49 points since 2015, covering the Vegas number by an average of +4.2 points per game in that span. Dallas has won twelve straight games at AT&T Stadium and is 10-2 ATS in that span.
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