NFL Betting Preview & Free Pick: Seattle at San Francisco

Nov 26, 2014


This is a difficult spot for Seattle as it is coming off an emotional 19-3 win over division-leading Arizona, which is significant in that the Seahawks are a money-burning 25-46 ATS following a division win, 12-28 ATS off a double-digit division win and 16-33-3 ATS off a win by more than fourteen points. Seattle also seems to be overrated by the betting market as the Seahawks are slightly above average from the line of scrimmage.

Indeed, Seattle is averaging 6.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad, thereby making the Seahawks just 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively. The more concerning issue for head coach Pete Carroll is how one-dimensional Seattle’s offense is because the Seahawks have little to no success throwing the ball downfield (6.6 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.9 yards per pass play).

I expect those numbers to decline further against an outstanding San Francisco secondary that is 1.0 yards per pas play better than average (6.0 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average 7.0 yards per pass play). More importantly, San Francisco is limiting quarterbacks to a mere 143 passing yards and 220 total yards at 4.7 yards per pass attempt and 4.3 yards per play at home this season. Overall, the 49ers’ stop unit is allowing 20.5 points per game and 300 total yards at 5.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play.

San Francisco Defense vs. Seattle Offense:

  • -1.0 yards per rush play disadvantage
  • +1.3 yards per pass play advantage
  • +0.3 yards per play advantage overall from line of scrimmage

San Francisco will force the Seahawks’ offense to become a one-dimensional due to its huge advantage in the secondary, which will allow the 49ers to stack the box and dare Russell Wilson to throw the ball. I also like the fact that San Francisco is limiting opponents to just 15.7 points at 5.1 yards per play and 20.6 yards per point over the last three weeks.

Meanwhile, there is no question that Seattle’s stop unit possesses a distinct advantage over the 49ers’ attack, but Colin Kaepernick should have success throwing the ball against a Seahawk secondary that has been exploited away from home (7.4 yards per pass play; 68.4% completion rate) and on grass (7.3 yards per pass play; 64.9% completion rate). Opposing quarterbacks are also completing 62.8% of their passes against Seattle’s secondary over the last three games.

My NFL math model favors San Francisco by two points and the 49ers apply to a very good 27-3-1 ATS NFL momentum situation of mine. Take the 49ers and invest with confidence.

Free NFL Sports Pick: San Francisco 49ers (pk) (-110)