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NFL Best Bet: St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers

I believe Carolina is one of the best 2-3 teams in the NFL as the Panthers have a very good defense that is limiting opponents to a mere 13.6 points per game on 3.8 yards per rush play, 6.2 yards per pass attempt and 5.2 yards per play.  Overall, the Panthers are 0.4 yards per rush play, 0.5 yards per pass attempt and 0.4 yards per play better than average defensively, which is certainly good enough to shut down an anemic St. Louis attack.  Indeed, the Rams take the field with one of the worst offenses in the league behind quarterback Sam Bradford.

St. Louis is averaging 23.5 points per game on 3.2 yards per rush play, 5.8 yards per pass attempt and 4.8 yards per play this season, which gives the Panthers a significant advantage on the defensive side of the ball.

Carolina Defense vs. St. Louis Offense:

  • +1.4 yards per rush play advantage
  • +1.6 yards per pass attempt advantage
  • +1.3 yards per play advantage overall

Despite defeating Houston 38-13 last week, the Rams actually lost the statistics by over 200 yards! In fact, St. Louis has lost the stat battle in each of its last two wins, which indicates that Jeff Fisher’s squad is a house of cards built upon short-term, positive variance.  Meanwhile, Carolina’s defense is for real based upon the fact that it has only allowed more than 290 yards once this season.  It’s clear, then, that St. Louis will have little success moving the ball in this game, but can the Rams stop Carolina’s attack?

Carolina is a below-average team offensively as evidenced by the fact that the Panthers are 0.1 yards per pass attempt and 0.2 yards per play worse than average (0.2 yards per rush play better than average).  Surprisingly, that output may be enough to move the chains against the Rams’ stop unit, which is 0.6 yards per rush play, 1.1 yards per pass attempt and 0.7 yards per play worse than average in 2013.

Carolina Offense vs. St. Louis Defense:

  • +0.8 yards per rush play advantage
  • +1.0 yards per pass attempt advantage
  • +0.7 yards per play advantage overall

Carolina will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in this game, and the Rams are a money-burning 8-21 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points.  Oskeim Sports and his team of trusted advisors recommend a solid investment on the Panthers Sunday.

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