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Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner: New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team

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After going 2-2 for the first four games of the 2021 season, the New Orleans Saints go on the road for two consecutive contests, starting with taking on the Washington Football Team on Sunday at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland.

Oskeim Sports provides a detailed betting preview and free pick in the game below.  Be sure to check back on a regular basis for more betting previews and free pick winners from the #1 Ranked Handicapper in the nation!

Washington falls into a very negative 10-40 ATS system of mine that invests against certain underdogs that have gone ‘over’ the posted total in three consecutive games. The foregoing situation is 9-35 ATS versus conference opponents.

In contrast, the Saints find support in a profitable 64-26 ATS contrarian system that invests on certain road teams in the first eight weeks of the regular season in competitively-priced games (+3 to -3) that have fallen short of market expectations in two of their last three games.

Since 2016, New Orleans is 30-12 ATS in road affairs, marking the best cover percentage in the NFL over that span. Let’s also note that the Saints are 48-26 ATS following a loss under head coach Sean Payton (including 25-10 ATS on the road) and 12-4 ATS in games priced between +3 to -3 since the start of the 2018 season.

Washington’s defense has failed to live up to expectations as the Redskins are ranked 30th in scoring defense, 28th in expected points per play, and 28th in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders. Cornerback William Jackson III has committed a league-high four pass interference penalties for 46 yards. Teams are converting 59.7% of their third downs against Washington.

New Orleans’ defense ranks second in DVOA and eliminates opponent’s ground game (3.1 yards per carry). The Saints’ front four should feast on Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke, who holds onto the ball for more than three seconds on average. Heinicke will be without starting right guard Brandon Scherff, who is out for at least two weeks with a sprained medial collateral ligament. The loss of Scherff is significant in that he has conceded just 1.5 pressures per game since the start of last season.

Finally, Washington wide receiver Curtis Samuel played 22 snaps last week in his season debut which was delayed due to a groin injury. However, Curtis did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday and was limited on Friday. The Washington Football Team will need Curtis on the field as New Orleans owns the second-best rush defense in the league and will force Heinicke to beat them through the air.

Take the New Orleans Saints minus the points as Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, October 10.