Buffalo continues to fly under-the-radar this NCAA basketball season despite winning six of its last seven games, including road upsets over Western Michigan (91-71), Toledo (73-68) and Northern Illinois (90-78). Since the beginning go the 2013-14 season, the Bulls have been nearly perfect at home, winning 32 of their last 37 games in Alumni Arena.
Since the start of the 2010-11 campaign, Buffalo is 68-17 inside Alumni Arena and 133-47 at home since the commencement of the 2003-04 regular season. Buffalo has won six of the last eight meetings in this series, and I look for the Bulls to complete the series sweep tonight before the home faithful.
The Bulls are 8-2 SU at home this season where they are averaging 82.5 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field, which is good enough to exploit a pedestrian Toledo defense that is 1.6 points per game better than average (71.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 72.9 points per game).
The concern for Toledo has been its weak perimeter defense. Indeed, teams are making 38.3% of their three-point field goal attempts against the Rockets, including 39.7% in conference play, 41.2% on the road and 44.4% over the last five games.
I also like the fact that Buffalo’s bench has contributed 667 of the team’s 1,760 points this season (37.8%), which is a dramatic improvement over last year’s reserves who scored 479 points all season. Buffalo also ranks 51st nationally in total rebounds per game (39.4), whereas the Rockets rank 152nd (36.8).
From a technical standpoint, Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in its last four games versus .501 or greater opposition,4-0 ATS in its last four conference affairs, 4-1 ATS in its last five home games and 4-1-1 ATS versus .601 or greater foes. With the Rockets standing at a money-burning 1-5 ATS in their last six clashes with Buffalo, take the Bulls in this NCAA basketball tilt and invest with confidence.
Oskeim Sports’ NCAA Basketball Free Picks:
- Buffalo (-2.5) (-105) over Toledo
- Kansas (-7) (-105) over West Virginia
- Purdue (pk) (-110) over Michigan State