Oskeim Sports gives a detailed betting preview and free picks in Thursday’s Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store! Oskeim’s award-winning handicappers also offer daily free picks!
Arizona vs. Duke (-8.5) (-110)
Report: Since 2005, NCAA Tournament teams whose three-point defense is in better form over the last two games are 47-22-2 ATS (68.1%) from Round 3 forward, including 28-7 ATS (80%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +4.3 points per game. This situation is 29-7-2 ATS (80.6%) in the Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament, including 18-3 ATS (85.7%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average of +5.3 points per game. Since 2003, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 173-127-3 ATS (57.7%), including 111-76 ATS (59.4%) since 2018. Since 2004, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 77% or better from the foul line are 77-50 ATS (60.6%), including 57-31 ATS (64.8%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.6 points per game. Since 2021, the ACC is 36-18 ATS (66.7%) in the NCAA Tournament, exceeding market expectations by an average of +5.1 points per game. Since 2008, Arizona is 1-7 ATS (12.5%) from Round 3 forward in the NCAA Tournament.
Since 2005, NCAA Tournament teams coming off two or more consecutive double-digit ATS wins are 69-45-2 ATS (60.5%). NCAA Tournament No. 1 and 2 seeds are 38-17 SU and 31-23-1 ATS (57.4%) in the Sweet 16 Round over the last ten seasons. Since 2000, NCAA Tournament favorites of six-plus points coming off a tournament win in which they scored 88 or more points are 57-10 SU and 42-25 ATS (62.7%) in the follow-up game. ACC teams are 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS (86.7%) in the NCAA Tournament against Big 12 Conference opponents, including 3-0 SU and ATS last year. Since 2000, Big 12 Conference underdogs of more than +2 are 15-59 SU and 30-43-1 ATS (41.1%) in the NCAA Tournament.
Since 2014, NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Round teams coming off two wins exact are 11-25-1 ATS (30.6%) versus opponents entering off three or more wins, including 3-10 ATS (23.1%) since 2020, failing to cover the spread by an average of -6.3 points per game. Since 2005, NCAA Tournament teams that averaged more free throw attempts during the regular season are 132-176-7 ATS (42.9%).
Betting Trends Favoring Arizona
- Since 2010, favorites of five or more points are 16-24 ATS (40%) in the Sweet 16 Round, including 5-10 ATS (33.3%) since 2020, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -6.6 points per game
- NCAA Tournament underdogs in matchups between the ACC and Big 12 Conference are 9-9 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%)
- Since 2005, NCAA Tournament favorites that are allowing less than 63.0 points per game are 86-115-2 ATS (42.8%)
- Since 2003, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 173-127-3 ATS (57.7%), including 111-76 ATS (59.4%) since 2018
- Since 2004, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 77% or better from the foul line are 77-50 ATS (60.6%), including 57-31 ATS (64.8%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.6 points per game
- Since 2016, NCAA Tournament teams coming off a game with a 50% or better field goal percentage are 90-117-5 ATS (43.5%) vs. opponents entering off a game in which they shot worse than 50% from the field, including 41-63-1 ATS (39.4%) since 2021
BYU vs. Alabama (-4.5) (-110)
Report: Since 2010, favorites of five or more points are 16-24 ATS (40%) in the Sweet 16 Round, including 5-10 ATS (33.3%) since 2020, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -6.6 points per game. Since 2016, NCAA Tournament teams coming off a game with a 50% or better field goal percentage are 90-117-5 ATS (43.5%) vs. opponents entering off a game in which they shot worse than 50% from the field, including 41-63-1 ATS (39.4%) since 2021. Since 2005, NCAA Tournament teams that averaged more free throw attempts during the regular season are 132-176-7 ATS (42.9%). BYU applies to a very good 143-115-5 ATS (55.4%) NCAA Tournament Pace System of mine that dates to 2004 and is 83-58-1 ATS (58.9%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average of +2.7 points per game.
Prior to this year’s NCAA Tournament, SEC teams were on a terrible 44-43 SU and 33-54 ATS (37.9%) run since the first round of the 2018 Tournament. Underdogs are 48-32 ATS (60%) in the last 80 SEC NCAA Tournament games overall. Finally, BYU is 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games priced between -3 and +3.
Betting Trends Favoring Alabama
- Since 2004, NCAA Tournament teams whose three-point FG defense is in better form over its last two games are 47-22-2 ATS (68.1%) from the Sweet 16 Round forward, including 28-7 ATS (80%) since 2018
- Since 2020, NCAA Tournament teams coming off a win in which they created fewer than eight turnovers and attempted 59 or more field goals are 316-387-6 ATS (45%)
- Since 2006, NCAA Tournament teams from high elevation are 25-82 SU (23.4%) and 26-49 ATS (34.7%)
- Sweet 16 Round No. 1 and 2 seeds are 38-17 SU and 31-23-1 ATS (57.4%) over the last ten seasons
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech (-5.5) (-110)
Report:Since 2005, NCAA Tournament underdogs coming off three consecutive ATS wins are 44-22-2 ATS (66.7%) from the Sweet 16 Round forward. Since 2005, NCAA Tournament teams coming off two or more consecutive double-digit ATS wins are 69-45-2 ATS (60.5%). Since 2005, NCAA Tournament teams coming off back-to-back upset wins as underdogs are 29-16 ATS (64.4%) from the Sweet 16 Round forward. Since 2016, NCAA Tournament teams coming off a game with a 50% or better field goal percentage are 90-117-5 ATS (43.5%) versus.opponents entering off a game in which they shot worse than 50% from the field, including 41-63-1 ATS (39.4%) since 2021. In March, SEC underdogs are 29-19 ATS and 6-3 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. This season, the SEC is 28-13 ATS as an underdog versus non-conference opponents. Arkansas head coach John Calipari is 7-3-1 ATS as an NCAA Tournament underdog, including 5-0-1 ATS with Arkansas and Kentucky.
As an underdog of +4 or more, Calipari is 6-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. Since 2011, double-digit seed underdogs are 16-7-1 ATS (69.6%) in the Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament. Finally, Texas Tech is 18-32 ATS (36%) in neutral court games since 2010, including 1-8 ATS in its last nine.
Betting Trends Favoring Texas Tech
- Since 2004, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 173-127-3 ATS (57.7%), including 111-76 ATS (59.4%) since 2018
- Since 2004, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 136-90-3 ATS (60.2%) versus opponents shooting 75% or worse from the charity stripe
- Since 2020, NCAA Tournament teams coming off a win in which they created fewer than eight turnovers and attempted 59 or more field goals are 316-387-6 ATS (45%)
- Since 2019, teams that had 31 or more rebounds and fewer than fifteen turnovers in the previous meeting are 160-116-1 ATS (58%) in the rematch.
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