Oskeim Sports gives a detailed betting preview and free picks on Sunday’s NCAA Tournament games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store! Oskeim’s award-winning handicappers also offer daily free picks!
St. Mary’s (+6) (-115) vs. Alabama
Report: Since 2003, NCAA Tournament underdogs coming off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less are 135-100-3 ATS (57.4%). Since 2007, NCAA Tournament underdogs of six or more points are 62-35 ATS (63.9%) following a game in which they allowed fewer than 59 points, including 31-17 ATS (64.6%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.6 points per game. St. Mary’s falls into a very good 141-114-5 ATS (55.3%) NCAA Tournament Pace System of mine that dates to 2006 and is 81-57-1 ATS (58.7%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average of +2.8 points per game. Since 2013, NCAA Tournament teams coming off a win in which they scored fewer than 60 points are 56-33 ATS (62.9%).
Since 2016, NCAA Tournament teams coming off a game in which they shot 50% or better from the field are 88-115-5 ATS (43.3%) versus opponents entering off a game in which they shot less than 50% from the field, including 39-61-1 ATS (39%) since 2021, losing by an average of -3.9 points per game and falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.6 points per game. Finally, since 2005, NCAA Tournament teams that averaged more free throw attempts during the regular season are 131-175-7 ATS (42.8%).
Connecticut (+9.5) (-110) vs. Florida
Report: Since 2003, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 168-123-3 ATS (57.7%), including 106-72 ATS (59.6%) since 2018. Since 2004, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 77% or better from the foul line are 73-49 ATS (59.8%), including 53-30 ATS (63.9%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.4 points per game. Since 2003, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 133-88-3 ATS (60.2%) versus opponents shooting worse than 75% from the charity stripe, including 81-47 ATS (63.3%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.8 points per game. Since 2003, NCAA Tournament underdogs coming off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less are 135-100-3 ATS (57.4%).
Since 2004, NCAA Tournament teams coming off a win by 20 or more points in Round 1 are 31-49-1 ATS (38.8%). This situation contains a negative 23-41-1 ATS (35.9%) subset angle involving opponents entering off a win by fewer than 20 points. Finally, since 2005, NCAA Tournament teams that averaged more free throw attempts during the regular season are 131-175-7 ATS (42.8%).
Illinois vs. Kentucky UNDER 170 points (-110)
Report: Since 2013, college basketball teams coming off a game that went under the total in which their biggest lead was 34 or more points are 214-164-2 to the Under (56.6%) from Game 34 forward, including 106-70 UNDER (60.2%) since 2020, going under by an average of -1.6 points per game. Since 2017, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 117-91 to the Under (56.2%), including 74-52 UNDER (58.7%) since 2021, going under by an average of -3.0 points per game. Since 2009, NCAA Tournament games with totals of 157 or more points are 27-17-1 to the Under (61.4%), including 13-5 UNDER (72.2%) since 2019. Since 2015, Round 2 (and beyond) NCAA Tournament favorites are 11-4 to the Under (73.3%) in games with totals of 157 or more points, going under by an average of -8.0 points per game.
Finally, since 2008, NCAA Tournament contests featuring teams that have gone over the total in 51% or more of their games are 96-64-2 to the Under (60%), including 56-32 UNDER (63.6%) since 2019, going under by an average of -3.9 points per game.
New Mexico vs. Michigan State UNDER 148.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2013, college basketball teams coming off a game that went under the total in which their biggest lead was 34 or more points are 214-164-2 to the Under (56.6%) from Game 34 forward, including 106-70 UNDER (60.2%) since 2020, going under by an average of -1.6 points per game. Since 2017, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 117-91 to the Under (56.2%), including 74-52 UNDER (58.7%) since 2021, going under by an average of -3.0 points per game. Finally, since 2015, NCAA Tournament teams coming off an upset win as underdogs in which they covered the spread by double-digits are 50-41 to the Under (55%), including 33-26 UNDER (55.9%) since 2020.
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