NCAA Football SEC Showdown: Kentucky (5-0) at Georgia (5-0)

Oct 5, 2023

NCAA football, NCAA football picks, NCAA football sports picks

Oskeim Sports provides a detailed betting preview in Saturday’s NCAA Football SEC showdown between the undefeated Kentucky Wildcats and Georgia Bulldogs.  Kentucky is 5-1 ATS as a conference underdog of fourteen or more points and has covered four straight meetings with the Bulldogs.  Does that mean you should take the road underdog in this SEC showdown?

Kentucky (+14.5) (-110) at Georgia

Report: The last time an SEC team started 4-0 and wasn’t ranked entering Week 5 was Missouri in 2013. Since that time, all 37 SEC teams that started 4-0 have been ranked except for Kentucky. The Wildcats undoubtedly took notice and responded by dismantling Florida 33-14 last Saturday, averaging 9.8 yards per rush attempt with nearly one-third of their rushes going for at least ten yards and 28% being graded as explosive. Running back Ray Davis finished with 280 yards on the ground and became the first SEC player to run for 250 yards and score four touchdowns in a conference game since 2016.

There are six SEC teams ranked behind Georgia in this week’s AP Top 25, and five of those seven teams have already lost. Kentucky remains unranked and will likely use the rankings snub as motivation for the second straight week against an overrated Georgia squad. Since 1980, 5-0 college football underdogs in Game 6 are 59-36-3 ATS (62.1%). In contrast, 5-0 college football favorites are just 176-218-8 ATS (44.6%) in Game 6 over that span. Since 1998, college football conference road underdogs of seven or more points are 442-324-23 ATS (57.7%) in games with totals of 48 points or less, including 65-46-2 ATS (58.6%) since 2020, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.95 points per game.

Kentucky is averaging 6.5 yards per rush attempt and limiting its opponents to only 2.5 yards per rush. The Wildcats rank fourth in marginal explosiveness on offense and ninth on defense. Through Week 5, the Wildcats have sixteen gains of 30-plus yards (16th-most in FBS) and allowed just five (7th). Kentucky is 15-3 ATS with conference revenge over the last six seasons, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when undefeated. The Wildcats are 14-1 ATS following a home game versus teams entering off a road affair and 8-1 ATS off a win versus foes coming off a win.

Kentucky at Georgia UNDER 48 points (-110)

Report: Since the beginning of the 2017 season, college football games featuring two ranked teams are 34-12 (73.9%) to the Under if the home team is favored by double-digits. In games with totals of more than 56 points, the Under improves to 21-6 (77.8%) in that span. Since 2000, college football teams in non-Friday affairs coming off a home game in which they had more than 300 rushing yards are 519-405-21 (56.2%) to the Under in Weeks 1-12 if one additional parameter is met, including 86-33-1 (72.3%) to the Under since 2021, covering the total by an average of -5.5 points per game.

The Wildcats are 15-1 (93.8%) to the Under since October 1, 2019, versus ranked opponents provided they are not underdogs of 31 or more points, covering the total by an average of -11.53 points per game. Georgia is 42-21 (66.7%) to the Under in home or neutral site games with totals of less than 60 points since 2015, going under by an average of -3.33 points per game.

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