NCAA Football Picks: Tulsa Laying Double-Digits to the Lobos

Sep 22, 2017

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Tulsa should not be laying double-digits to anyone, especially to a New Mexico squad that possesses an efficient offense.

I am certainly aware of the fact that the Lobos could be down to their third-string quarterback for this game after starter Lamar Jordan and backup Tevaka Tuioti were both knocked out in last week’s game against Boise State.

Third-string quarterback Coltin Gerhart is a graduate transfer from Arizona State and looked decent in relief on the blue carpet. New Mexico’s coaching staff also has two extra days to get Gerhart prepared to face one of the worst defenses in the country.

Tulsa is allowing 51.7 points and 638 yards per game at 9.4 yards per play and 12.4 yards per point to teams that would combine to average just 7.3 yards per play.

The Golden Hurricane rate 2.3 yards per rush play and 1.9 yards per pass play worse than average this season. Tulsa’s performance in Week Two epitomizes how bad its defense is: 42 points and 598 total yards at 8.1 yards per play yielded to Louisiana-Lafayette! That is alarming.

New Mexico’s methodical offense is averaging 26.7 points and 396 total yards at 5.9 yards per play, which is certainly good enough to consistently move the chains against Tulsa’s stop unit.

New Mexico’s ground attack has been 0.4 yards per attempt better than average in 2017 (4.9 yards per rush attempt against teams that would combine to allow 4.5 yards per rush play), which is significant in that the Lobos will be able to control the clock and keep Tulsa’s offense off the field (Tulsa is averaging 92 plays per game).

I went back the past two seasons to see how the Golden Hurricane have performed against other option attacks. Needless to say, Tulsa’s coaching staff has failed in every respect, giving up an average of 43 points and 7.7 yards per play to Navy the last two years.

More bad news for Tulsa – star defensive end Jesse Brubaker, a senior who had 13.5 tackles for a loss last season, is suspended for the first half of this game due to a targeting penalty he received in last week’s contest.

While Tulsa is averaging 47.0 points per game this season, its offense is only 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play to a mediocre attack).

Meanwhile, the Lobos’ stop unit rates 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yards per play), thereby effectively neutralizing Tulsa’s overrated attack.

From a technical standpoint, New Mexico is 12-4 ATS in its last sixteen games following a loss, which indicates that head coach Bob Davie does an excellent job in getting his team to bounce back from defeat.

In contrast, the Golden Hurricane are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 home games versus .499 or worse opposition and 3-8-1 ATS in their last eleven games overall versus teams with a losing record (15-34 ATS since 1992).

With New Mexico standing at 36-17 ATS versus teams averaging 31+ points per game, 15-5 ATS versus teams averaging 37+ points per game and 21-9 ATS against opposing offenses that average more than 5.89 yards per play, grab the points with the Lobos as one of Oskeim Sports’ NCAA Football Picks for Saturday, September 23.

NCAA Football Picks from Oskeim Sports:

  • New Mexico (+11) over Tulsa
  • Iowa (+12.5) over Penn State
  • Old Dominion (+28) over Virginia Tech

Be sure to visit Oskeim’s Blog on a daily basis for more free and premium NCAA Football Picks!