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NCAA Football Picks: Vanderbilt Live Underdog vs. Kansas State

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Oskeim Sports provides a detailed betting previous in the Kansas State/Vanderbilt game on Saturday, September 16.  Oskeim also gives several NCAA Football Picks within this article.

Vanderbilt and Kansas State were two of my favorite teams entering the 2017 campaign as I felt that both programs were flying under the radar.  The Commodores offense has looked outstanding in wins over Middle Tennessee State and Alabama A&M.

Specifically, Vanderbilt is averaging 35.0 points and 384 total yards per game at 6.2 yards per play and 11.0 yards per point against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yards per play and 11.5 yards per point to a mediocre attack.

Perhaps the biggest surprise has been the development of Vanderbilt quarterback Kyle Shurmer, who has completed 35 of 46 passes for 10.5 yards per pass play against defensive backfields that would combine to allow just 7.2 yards per pass play to a mediocre quarterback.

From a technical standpoint, Vanderbilt is 21-6 ATS after failing to cover the Vegas number in its previous game, 7-3 ATS in its last ten games off a win by 20+ points and 7-3-1 ATS as a home underdog under head coach Derek Mason, including a perfect 3-0 ATS versus foes off back-to-back wins.

Kansas State has destroyed two really bad teams in Central Arkansas (55-19) and Charlotte (55-7) so it’s hard to know how good the Wildcats really are.

Kansas State has been 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively (8.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 8.0 yards per play) and 0.2 yards per play better than average defensively (4.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.3 yards per play).

The Wildcats’ offense will be challenged by a stout Vanderbilt stop unit that has been 0.7 yards per play better than average (2.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 3.6 yards per play.

The one concern I have with backing Vanderbilt is its apparent inability to run the football.  The Commodores are averaging 122 rushing yards per game at 3.5 yards per rush attempt.  Vanderbilt now faces a Kansas State run defense that has been 0.2 yards per play better than average.

I also have a tremendous amount of respect for Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder, who is 64-48-1 ATS on the road (86-45-1 ATS at home).

However, Vanderbilt applies to a very good 29-7 ATS system that invests on certain home teams off consecutive wins by 21+ points versus opponents off back-to-back games in which they scored 42 points or more.  The Wildcats fall into a negative 21-55 ATS and 14-40 ATS situations.

The Wildcats also fall into a negative 21-55 ATS and 14-40 ATS situations.  Grab the points with Vanderbilt as one of Oskeim Sports NCAA Football Picks for Saturday, September 16.

NCAA Football Picks:

  • Vanderbilt (+4) over Kansas State
  • Old Dominion (+10.5) over North Carolina
  • Florida (-4) over Tennessee

Be sure to check back throughout the season for more NCAA Football Picks!