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NCAA Football Betting Preview: Texas A&M at Alabama

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Despite defeating South Carolina and Arkansas earlier this season, I always felt that Texas A&M was a house of cards built upon a woefully inadequate defense. Following consecutive blowout losses to both Mississippi State (48-31) and Mississippi (35-20), the Aggies have finally been exposed as an overrated team living on borrowed time.  With that said, I do have a lot of respect for Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin, who is 4-0 SU and ATS in College Station following an upset home loss with an average margin of victory of 37 points per game.  I hope you enjoy the football betting preview below.

Texas A&M has allowed 37.0 points over its last three games at 5.5 yards per rush play, 9.0 yards per pass play, 6.7 yards per play and 12.4 yards per point.  The Aggies are also yielding 34.7 points per game to conference opponents at 5.2 yards per rush play, 9.0 yards per pass play and 6.8 yards per play.  Overall, Texas A&M is 0.1 yards per rush attempt, 0.4 yards per pass attempt and 0.1 yards per play worse than average defensively this season, which is music to the ear’s of Alabama’s offense.

The Crimson Tide are averaging 33.2 points per game at 4.8 yards per rush attempt, 9.5 yards per pass attempt and 6.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 4.4 yards per rush play, 6.9 yards per pass play and 5.6 yards per play to mediocre offensive squads.  Let’s also note that Alabama is averaging an impressive 45.0 points per game at home this season at 5.5 yards per rush play, 11.2 yards per pass play and 7.9 yards per play.  Overall, the Tide’s offense is 0.4 yards per rush play, 2.6 yards per pass play and 1.2 yards per play better than average this season, which is certainly good enough to exploit Texas A&M’s porous stop unit.

Alabama Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense:

  • +0.5 yards per rush play advantage
  • +3.0 yards per pass play advantage
  • +1.3 yards per play advantage overall

As everyone knows, the Tide also possesses a very good defense that is 1.9 yards per rush play, 1.1 yards per pass play and 1.2 yards per play better than average, which is good enough to slow down a potent Texas A&M attack.  Moreover, Alabama is limiting opponents to a mere 11.0 points per game at home this season at just 3.2 yards per rush play, 4.6 yards per pass play, 4.0 yards per play and 18.4 yards per point.  There is no question that Texas A&M possesses a very good offense that is 0.6 yards per rush play, 1.1 yards per pass play and 1.0 yards per play better than average, but those results are not good enough to have a lot of success against a excellent Tide stop unit.

Alabama Defense vs. Texas A&M Offense:

  • +1.3 yards per rush play advantage
  • +0.0 yards per pass play advantage
  • +0.2 yards per play advantage overall

The situation also favors Alabama as the Aggies are traveling for the fourth time in five weeks, whereas this is the Tide’s only home game in a seven-week span so we can expect a motivated effort from coach Saban’s squad this afternoon.  From a technical standpoint, let’s note that Texas A&M is a money-burning 1-9 ATS versus teams with a winning record, including 0-7 ATS versus teams with a win percentage exceeding .750.  The Aggies are also 26-47 ATS on the following one or more consecutive losses, 13-31 ATS as road underdogs and 2-9 ATS after the first month of the season, whereas Alabama is 35-20 ATS after failing to cover the point spread in two or more consecutive games.  Lay the points with Alabama and invest with confidence.

Football Betting Preview & Free Pick: Alabama (-11.5) (-110)

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