The wrong team is favored in this game as Boston College is the better team from both sides of the ball. The Eagles’ success is predicated upon an excellent defense that is allowing 18.7 points per game at 3.0 yards per rush play, 6.7 yards per pass play and 4.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 3.7 yards per rush attempt, 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 5.5 yards per play against mediocre defensive squads.
Overall, Boston College is 0.7 yards per rush play, 0.8 yards per pass play and 0.6 yards per play better than average defensively this season, which is certainly good enough to shut down an anemic Virginia Tech attack that is 0.6 yards per play worse than average (5.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yards per play).
Boston College Defense vs. Virginia Tech Offense:
- +1.1 yards per rush play advantage
- +1.5 yards per pass play advantage
- +1.2 yards per play advantage overall
I also like the fact that the Eagles’ defense has been very good on the road where they are limiting opponents to a mere 12.7 points per game and 227 total yards at 4.1 yards per play. Let’s also note that Virginia Tech’s offense is ranked No. 101 in the red zone versus conference opponents this season. Needless to say, the Hokies’ offense is in for a long day against an outstanding Boston College stop unit that has held five of its eight opponents to season-low or second-low yards this season.
Boston College also takes the field with a decent offense that is averaging 411 yards at 5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 396 yards at 5.5 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad. The key to Boston College’s offense is a very strong ground attack that is averaging 277 yards at 5.6 yards per rush play against teams that would combine to allow just 4.7 yards per rush play. While Virginia Tech is very strong against the run (0.8 yards per rush play better than average), the Eagles still possess a 0.1 yards per rush attempt advantage over the Hokies’ front seven.
From a technical standpoint, Virginia Tech is a money-burning 6-16 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons, including going 1-8 ATS in its last nine games in that role. The Hokies are also 0-4 ATS in their last four home games, 1-5 ATS in their last six November games and 1-5 ATS versus teams with a winning record. With Boston College standing at 8-1 ATS after failing to cover the point spread, take the better team plus the points as my free sports pick and invest with confidence.
Sports Pick: Boston College (+3.5) (-115)
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