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NCAA Football Best Bet: Miami Florida at Boston College

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Oskeim Sports previews Friday’s college football game between Miami Florida and Boston College.  Oskeim recommends taking the points with the Eagles as his NCAA Football Best Bet for October 26.

Miami Florida suffered a 16-13 loss at Virginia prior to its bye week (Hurricanes were 7-point favorites in that game), which is significant in that the Eagles are a profitable 14-3 SU and ATS at home versus opponents arriving off an upset loss.

Boston College is also 10-1 ATS in its last eleven conference affairs and 8-2 ATS in its last ten home games, including covering the point spread 75 percent of the time as a home underdog.

More importantly, the Eagles are 13-3-1 ATS in their last seventeen games overall, including 7-1-1 ATS versus .501 or greater opposition 8-2-1 ATS following a straight-up win.

In contrast, Miami Florida is a money-burning 1-5 ATS in its previous six road trips, 1-5 ATS in its last six conference clashes and 0-5 ATS in its last five October affairs.

Boston College is averaging 39.6 points and 451 total yards per game at 6.0 yards per play and 11.4 yards per point this season.  The Eagles’ potent ground attack is averaging 231 rushing yards per game at 4.7 yards per rush attempt behind star running back A.J. Dillon.

Dillon has been battling injuries throughout the season but has been upgraded to probable for tonight’s game and is averaging 6.1 yards per rush attempt.  The Eagles are ranked 11th in the nation in yards per point and will pose a challenge to a very good Miami defense that is limiting opponents to just 236 total yards per game at 3.8 yards per play.

The Hurricanes’ offense is 0.3 yards per play better than average (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yards per play to a mediocre attack), which is not good enough to have success against a solid Boston College stop unit that is 0.6 yards per play better than average.

Miami Florida applies to a very negative 8-30 ATS system that invests against certain college football road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a road loss versus opponents that have a .501 or greater win percentage.

With Boston College standing at a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven October games (Hurricanes 0-5 ATS L/5 October affairs), grab the points with the Eagles as Oskeim Sports’ NCAA Football Best Bet for Friday, October 26.

Oskeim Sports’ NCAA Football Best Bet:

  • Boston College (+3.5) (-110) over Miami Florida

Be sure to visit Oskeim Sports’ Blog on a daily basis for another NCAA Football Best Bet.