The Cardinals are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 NCAA basketball games, including going 5-0-1 ATS in their last six ACC affairs, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road tilts and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a win by 20-plus points. Louisville is also a profitable 37-20-1 ATS as a conference underdog versus .800 or greater opponents, including 8-1 ATS when avenging a loss of five or more points.
Louisville takes the floor boasting an impressive 18-5-1 ATS mark as a road underdog off consecutive wins and has won its previous three games by a combined 98 points! The Cardinals are an extremely well-balanced squad, rating 8.0 points per game better than average offensively (78.5 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 70.5 points per game) and 13.9 points per game better than average defensively (62.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 76.2 points per game).
Over its last five games, Louisville is averaging an incredible 88.2 points on 52.1% shooting from the field and 43.2% from beyond the arc. Over that same period of time, the Cardinals are limiting opponents to just 37.5% shooting from the floor and 27.4% from three-point territory. Let’s also note that the Cardinals are 7-3 SU and ATS in conference play wherein they are averaging 79.2 points per per game (47.8% FG%; 38.9% 3-PT%).
Virginia enters tonight’s game with a pedestrian attack that is 0.8 points per game worse than average (68.9 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 69.7 points per game. The Cavaliers’ offense isn’t much better at home where they are averaging just 69.9 points per game.
Even worse news for Virginia backers is the fact that head coach Tony Bennett’s NCAA basketball squad is trending in the wrong direction, averaging a pathetic 65.0 points over its last five contests.
The reason why I have backed off making Louisville a Best Bet is the fact that two players – forwards Mangok Mathiang and Deng Adel – are suspended for tonight’s game. Adel is averaging 11.1 points in 28:23 minutes per game, while Mathiang is averaging 7.1 points in 19:39 minutes per game.
These suspensions come on the heels of losing guard Quentin Snider, who remains out with a hip flexor strain. In 18 games this season, Snider was averaging 12.1 points and 4.0 assists per game.
With an inflated line due to the recent suspension news, take Louisville as Oskeim Sports’ Free NCAA Basketball Sports Pick for Monday, February 6.
Oskeim Sports’ Free NCAA Basketball Sports Pick: Louisville (+7) (-110)