Southern Mississippi is coming off an impressive 77-66 win over Florida Atlantic as three-point underdogs and now looks to avenge last year’s heartbreaking 54-50 loss to Old Dominion.
Southern Mississippi plus the points is definitely the right side in this game and the Golden Eagles qualify as one of Oskeim Sports’ NCAA Basketball Picks for Thursday, February 8.
The Golden Eagles are a perfect 9-0 SU and 5-0 ATS at home this season (8th-longest streak in program history) where they are averaging 87.9 points per game on 51.4% shooting from the field, 38.3% from beyond the arc and 77.8% from the charity stripe.
Southern Mississippi has scored 85 points or more in all four conference home affairs this season, with only one of those games decided by single-digits. Most recently, the Golden Eagles defeated North Texas 85-78 inside the friendly confines of Reed Green Coliseum.
I also like the fact that Southern Mississippi is ranked 2nd in the nation in turnovers per game (9.4), 4th in fewest turnovers (226) and 5th in turnover margin (5.3). Led by Tyree Griffin (16.3 points per game) and Cortez Edwards (15.8 points per game), the Golden Eagles lead Conference-USA and are ranked 5th in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.59).
The Golden Eagles play solid defense without committing fouls as evidenced by the fact that they are ranked 24th nationally in personal fouls per game (15.6) and 33rd in fewest fouls (375).
In contrast, the Monarchs are 5-6 ATS on the road this season where they are averaging just 72.0 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the floor. Old Dominion also struggles to convert at the foul line, making 67.0% of its free throw attempts on foreign soil (69.3% overall in 2017-18).
From a technical standpoint, Old Dominion is a money-burning 2-7 ATS in its last nine conference games, 2-6 ATS in its last eight road affairs, 2-5 ATS in its last seven games following a win and 1-5 ATS in its last six contests after covering the spread in its previous game.
On the other hand, the Golden Eagles are a profitable 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games versus teams with a winning road mark and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home tilts versus opponents with a .601 or greater road win percentage.
Southern Mississippi is also 19-9 ATS at home and 10-2 ATS following back-to-back road games over the last three seasons, whereas Old Dominion is just 5-13 ATS off a conference win and 5-15 ATS after winning five of its last 7 games over the last two seasons.
Finally, my math model only favors Old Dominion by 6.3 points so we are getting decent line value on the live home underdog. Grab the generous points with Southern Mississippi as one of Oskeim Sports’ NCAA Basketball Picks for Thursday, February 8.
Oskeim Sports’ Free NCAA Basketball Picks:
- Southern Mississippi (+7.5) (-110) over Old Dominion
- Tennessee State (+8.5) (-110) over Belmont
- VMI (+3) (-120) over Western Carolina
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