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NBA Playoffs Game 7 Betting Preview: San Antonio at Los Angeles

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My math model has San Antonio as 1.5-points better on a neutral court so the point spread in tonight’s Game 7 is certainly fair. From a fundamental standpoint, San Antonio is 2.6 points per game better than average offensively (103.1 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 100.5 points per game) and 3.6 points per game better than average defensively (97.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 100.9 points per game).

The good news for San Antonio investors is the fact that the Spurs are averaging 104.6 points over the last five games, and Gregg Popovich’s squad should continue to have success at the offensive end of the floor.

Los Angeles is only 0.2 points per game better than average defensively (100.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 100.5 points per game), but the Clippers are yielding 102.5 points per game in the playoffs. The Clippers’ strength is at the offensive end of the floor where they are 6.3 points per game better than average (106.4 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 100.1 points per game).

San Antonio has been successful in slowing down the Clippers’ attack, limiting them to 100.3 points per game in this series on 44.2% shooting from the field. More importantly, San Antonio’s perimeter defense has completely eliminated the Clippers’ three-point field goal efficiency (29.2% 3-PT in the playoffs vs. 37.1% during regular season).

In what is expected to be an extremely competitive game, free throw shooting will play a significant role in determining who advances.

San Antonio Free Throw Shooting:

77.2% in 2014-2015
78.8% on the road

Los Angeles Free Throw Shooting:

70.5% in 2014-2015
70.0% at home
64.2% in the playoffs

From a technical standpoint, San Antonio is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 trips to Los Angeles, while the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. The Spurs are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a loss, 11-3 ATS in their last fourteen after giving up 100 or more points and 7-3 ATS in their last ten games after failing to cover the spread.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 NBA playoffs conference quarterfinals games, 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games off a win and 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games versus foes with a .501 or greater road record.

Finally, San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich is 21-5 ATS in the playoffs following a postseason loss, including 92.9% ATS if the Spurs were upset as favorites in the previous game. Grab the points in this NBA playoffs clash and invest with confidence.

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