NBA Playoffs Betting Previews & Free Picks

Apr 28, 2014

The NBA Playoffs are in full swing and the experts at Pro Edge Sports have you covered with in-depth betting capsules on each of tonight’s games.

Miami Heat (-7) (110) at Charlotte Bobcats

Miami is 15-4 ATS as road favorites of 6.5 to 9 points, and it’s hard to imagine a scenario under which the Bobcats avoid the sweep tonight.  Indeed, Charlotte is a money-burning 11-23 ATS iff a double-digit home loss, 27-52 ATS after being installed as home underdogs and 15-27 ATS following three or more consecutive losses.  The only slimmer of home for Charlotte fans is the fact that the Bobcats are a profitable 13-4 ATS at home in the second half of the season, 27-13 ATS off a loss, 12-4 ATS following a home loss and 22-11 ATS after failing to cover the point spread.

The problem for Charlotte remains an anemic offense that is averaging 96.6 points per game against teams that combine to allow 100.8 points per game, thereby making the Bobcats 4.2 points per game worse than average offensively this season.  Charlotte’s offense is averaging just 90.0 points per game in this series, whereas the Heat are averaging 104.3 points per game versus division opponents and 102.1 points per game overall this season.  We give a slight lean to Miami minus the points tonight.

Atlanta Hawks (+6.5) (-110) at Indiana Pacers

Is there a more dysfunctional team than the Pacers right now?  Indiana is 11-29 ATS in the second half of the season and has been struggling to eliminate a team whose record is below .500. Indiana will ultimately win this series based upon its defense that is allowing just 92.4 points per game to teams that combine to average 100.3 points per game, thereby making the Pacers 7.9 points per game better than average defensively.

Indiana’s defense is even better at home where the Pacers are limiting opponents to a mere 88.3 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field.  Atlanta will have a hard to surpassing its season average of 100.6 points per game tonight as the Hawks are averaging a woeful 93.0 points per game on 39.1% shooting in this playoff series.  The other issue facing Atlanta is a poor defense that is allowing 104.1 points per game on the road (47.7% FG; 39.3% 3-PT).  The matchup favors Atlanta but we still give a slight lean to Indiana at -6.5 points or less.

San Antonio Spurs (-4) (-110) at Dallas Mavericks

San Antonio suddenly finds itself trailing in its opening round playoff series against the Mavericks after Saturday’s 109-108 loss.  The technical analysis suggests that the Spurs will win game four as they are 26-15 ATS versus teams with a win percentage between .510 and .600, 23-11 ATS following an upset loss and 15-5 ATS after failing to cover the point spread.  Meanwhile, Dallas is a money-burning 5-13 ATS versus teams with a winning record, 17-30 ATS at home after covering the point spread and 4-12 ATS after covering the point spread in five of its last seven games.

However, there are a few pieces of good news for Dallas fans: the Mavericks are 14-5 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 43-30 ATS in the second half of the season and covered five consecutive games.  In contrast, San Antonio has failed to cover the spread in five straight games. The issue of concern with the Mavericks is a bad defense that is allowing 103.6 points per game to division opponents (48.0% FG; 38.2% 3-PT) and 103.8 points per game at home (47.2% FG; 37.8% 3-PT).  The experts at Pro Edge Sports have not made a decision on this game, but be sure to check our premium selections for long-term winners.