Game: Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Odds: Pistons +14.5, Bucks -14.5
Total: 214.5
Over the past few seasons, there has been a common theme when the Pistons play the Bucks. Milwaukee has won ten straight over Detroit. That number goes up to 11 in a row when the Bucks play the Pistons at home. Detroit is one of the worst teams in the NBA and they will be down a key player tonight. Isaiah Stewart, who got into the scuffle with LeBron James recently, will serve the second of his two-game suspension tonight. That means Detroit will be without its leading rebounder.
It’s also the second game of a back-to-back for Detroit. The Pistons lost last night 100-92 to Miami. Detroit was a double-digit (10.5) underdog and wound up covering the spread. It was the second game in a row and third in their last four in which the Pistons covered. Detroit has played three back-to-backs this season and is a surprising 2-1 ATS in the second game.
Milwaukee is a big 14.5-point favorite tonight. They are playing at home, but the Bucks are only 5-4 at the Fiserv Forum so far this season. Milwaukee does have Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday back in the lineup, but neither player is playing at the level they were last season. Middleton came back from COVID protocol and Holiday returned from a knee injury.
Still, the Bucks are more talented with two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the way. He averages 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. Middleton scores 17.7 per game and four other Bucks average in double figures. The Bucks are 11th in the NBA in scoring averaging 108.6 points per game. They are a surprising eighth in three-point shooting percentage.
Why the Bucks are such a huge favorite has more to do with Detroit’s shortcomings. The Pistons rank 29th in the league in scoring (99.1 ppg) and 29th in field goal shooting percentage (41.0 percent). Detroit doesn’t shoot the three-pointer very well either. They are last in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage, and they are last in the league in rebounding and will be without their leading rebounder (Stewart) tonight.
What’s interesting is that Milwaukee has won its last four games in a row but is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games. The Bucks are 9-4 straight up when they are the favorite, but they don’t cover the spread often at home. Milwaukee is just 2-7 ATS in nine games at home this season.
Detroit has actually covered in six of their last nine games. The Pistons are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten games against Milwaukee. The two teams played on Nov. 2 in Detroit. The Pistons were a 4.5-point underdog and got blown out 117-89.
The total has gone Under in 12 of Milwaukee’s last 15 games and in 10 of their last 11 played at home. Against Detroit though, the Over is 7-3 in the last ten games. In the second game of a back-to-back this season, Detroit’s scoring goes from 99 ppg to 102 but the Over is just 1-2 in those games.