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NBA Finals Betting Preview & Wagering Advice

With the NBA Finals set to commence on Thursday, the experts at Pro Edge Sports wanted to provide its loyal readers with a detailed betting preview on the upcoming series between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs.

Fundamental Analysis: Miami Heat

Miami is averaging 101.7 points per game against teams that combine to allow 99.9 points per game, thereby making the Heat 1.8 points per game better than average offensively. Let’s also note that Miami is averaging 99.4 points per game on the road (48.8% FG; 36.2% 3-PT) and 99.1 points per game in the playoffs (49.7% FG; 39.5% 3-PT).  Defensively, Miami is allowing 96.6 points per game to teams that combine to average 99.5 points per game, thereby making the Heat 2.9 points per game better than average defensively this season.  The Heat are also limiting opponents to 97.2 points per game on the road and 92.1 points per game in the playoffs.

Fundamental Analysis: San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio is averaging 105.6 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 101.7 points per game, including shooting 48.5% from the field and 39.6% from beyond the arc.  The Spurs are averaging 107.0 points per game at home (49.9% FG; 42.5% 3-PT) and 106.6 points per game in postseason play (48.3% FG; 39.2% 3-PT).  Overall, San Antonio is 3.9 points per game better than average offensively this season.  From a defensively standpoint, San Antonio is 4.3 points per game better than average (97.8 points per game to teams that would combine to average 102.1 points per game).  The Spurs are yielding just 96.7 points per game at home and 98.6 points per game in the playoffs.

Technical Analysis Favoring Miami:

  • 22-13 ATS versus teams with a winning record in the second half of the season;
  • 30-18 ATS after covering the spread in three of its last four games;
  • 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing with three or more days of rest;
  • 4-1 ATS in its last five games versus .601 or greater opposition

Technical Analysis Favoring San Antonio:

  • 12-4 ATS versus teams with a winning record in the second half of the season;
  • 8-1 ATS at home against teams with a win percentage between .600 and .700;
  • 43-24 ATS versus non-conference opponents;
  • 71-46 ATS in home playoffs games;
  • 39-17-1 ATS in its last 57 games versus the NBA Southeast;
  • 15-7 ATS in its last 22 NBA Championship games;
  • 51-24-1 ATS in its 76 games versus Eastern Conference opponents
  • 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games;
  • 6-2 ATS in its last eight games following a win

We should also note that San Antonio is 21-5 SU and 15-8-1 ATS at home versus the Heat and 114-67 SU and 96-50-5 ATS in postseason play with Manu Ginobli, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan, including 71-22 SU and 56-34-3 ATS at home.  The Heat are 58-24 SU and 48-32-2 ATS in the playoffs with the “Big Three,” including 18-5 SU and 16-7 ATS following a postseason loss (12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS L/12).  San Antonio’s dominance in its last seven games at the AT&T Center (7-0 SU and ATS) is best evidenced by the fact that the Spurs’ smallest margin of victory over those games was 17 points (Game 2 against Portland and Game 1 against Oklahoma City).  San Antonio’s overall margin of victory in its last seven home games is an incredible 23.7 points.

Reports also indicate that San Antonio point guard Tony Parker, who has been dealing with a left ankle injury and was forced to leave the final game of the Western Conference Finals, is expected to play in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.  “I may not be 100 percent, but I’ll be there,” Parker said. Revenge will also be in the minds of San Antonio players as the Spurs blew a 3-2 series lead against Miami in last year’s NBA Finals before ultimately losing in seven games.  The NBA Finals involves the best two teams in the league, and we are extremely excited to see how both coaches handle the pressure down the stretch.

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