NBA Betting Preview & Free Sports Pick: Nets at Magic

Dec 16, 2016

NBA sports pick, NBA betting preview, NBA best bet, NBA sports betting

This game involves two NBA teams that are being unfairly treated by the betting market.  Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in its last six games and 5-0 ATS in its last five games with one day of rest, whereas the Magic are 4-9 ATS in their last thirteen games off a loss, 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four home affairs versus teams with a losing road record.

In short, the Nets continue to be undervalued by the NBA market despite recent straight-up wins over the Clippers (127-122), Nuggets (116-111) and the Lakers (107-97).  Meanwhile, Orlando remains overvalued by the NBA market despite going 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games overall.

Brooklyn also falls into a very good 55-25 ATS NBA system of mine that invests against certain NBA home favorites that have allowed 100+ points in four consecutive games, provided they are matched up against an opponent that has scored 100+ points in each of their past four contests.

This system is 25-13 ATS (65.8%) over the last three seasons and has been a profitable 55.6% ATS in 2016.  Orlando has lost six straight at home and is a woeful 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games at the Amway Center.

I also like the fact that Brooklyn is 6-7 in games that are within five points with five minutes to play, scoring 106.8 points per 100 possessions.

In contrast, the Magic are 7-9 in games within five points in the final minutes, posting a terrible 94.4 offensive rating (points per 100 possessions).  Orlando’s defense has also struggled in the final minutes as evidenced by its 115.1 defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions).

Finally, Orlando center Nikola Vucevic, who is averaging 12.2 points and 10.9 rebounds per game, is questionable with a back injury.  He has missed three consecutive games with a lower-back contusion and it’s undetermined if he will return to the lineup tonight against the Nets.

Brooklyn point guard Jeremy Lin returned to action on December 12 and played 20 minutes (10 points, 7 assists in 20:04) before sitting out on Wednesday (vs. Lakers) with back tightness.  The hope is that Lin will see some action tonight after having 4+ days to rest his back (and hamstring).

Grab the generous points with the Nets as Oskeim Sports’ Free NBA Best Bet for Friday, December 16.