After starting the season 3-2, including a blowout loss to Air Force, Boise State has responded to head coach Bryan Harsin’s calls for improvement by winning seven straight games to end the regular season. The Broncos possess a very good offense that is averaging 40.8 points per game on 513 total yards at 6.5 yards per play and 12.6 yards per point against teams that would combine to allow just 5.5 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad.
More importantly, the Broncos are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this season where they are averaging 41.8 points per game on 533 total yards at 6.6 yards per play and 12.8 yards per point. Overall, Boise State is 0.7 yards per rush play, 1.5 yards per pass play and 1.0 yards per play better than average offensively in 2014, which is good enough to exploit a subpar Fresno State stop unit.
Indeed, Fresno State is allowing 33.0 points per game on 468 total yards at 6.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.7 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad. Even more alarming is the fact that the Bulldogs are 2-4 on the road where they are yielding 37.0 points per game on 489 total yards at 6.1 yards per play. Overall, Fresno State is 0.1 yards per rush play, 1.3 yards per pass play and 0.5 yards per play worse than average defensively this season.
Boise State quarterback Grant Hedrick, who averaged 9.0 yards per pass completion in the Broncos first meeting with Fresno State, should easily eclipse that output in light of the fact that he is averaging 12.4 yards per pass completion in 2014. In fact, Boise State possesses a significant +2.8 yards per pass attempt advantage over Fresno State’s woeful secondary. Look for the Broncos to move the chains at will through the air in the Mountain West Conference championship game.
What many amateur sports bettors do not realize is the fact that Fresno State’s offense is 0.5 yards per play worse than average (5.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yards per play). Even worse is the Bulldogs’ passing game, which is averaging a pathetic 6.1 yards per play against a group of secondaries that would combine to allow 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Meanwhile, Boise State takes the field with a very good defense that is 0.4 yards per play better than average (5.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play).
Based purely from the line of scrimmage, Boise State possesses a 1.5 yards per play advantage offensively and a 0.9 yards per play advantage defensively. From a technical standpoint, Boise State is 58-38 ATS at home, 56-35 ATS off a double-digit win over a Mountain West Conference opponent, 38-18 ATS after six or more consecutive wins and 70-40 ATS in the second half of the season. Finally, the Broncos are 12-2 ATS in this series, while Fresno State is 1-6 in its last seven trips to the Blue Turf.