Monday’s Sports Betting Preview & Free Premium Sports Pick

Aug 11, 2014


Kevin Correia, who was acquired by the Dodgers on Saturday, makes his debut tonight in what is being described as a spot start for Dan Haren. “As of right now, we’ll use Correia for a spot start and out of the bullpen,” Los Angeles manager Don Mattingly said. “Hypothetically speaking, during this stretch of games in a row we can give our guys a bit of a breather.” The arrival of Correia brings little optimism as the 33-year-old was 5-13 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.45 WHIP this season, including going 2-7 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at night and 0-1 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over his last three outings. Correia’s underlying metrics substantiate his pedestrian skill set:

Kevin Correia’s Metrics:

  • 4.85 xFIP & 4.90 SIERA in 2014
  • 4.67 xFIP & 4.23 FIP on the road
  • 5.59 xFIP & 5.19 FIP in July
  • 4.81 xFIP & 4.23 FIP in the second half

Let’s also note that Correia is 3-3 with a career 4.24 ERA and 1.58 WHIP versus the Braves, including allowing a combined eight runs on 12 hits in his last 8 1/3-innings pitched at Turner Field. Meanwhile, Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran has been unhittable at home this season where he is 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Overall, the 23-year-old star is 10-8 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 2014, including going 9-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at night. More importantly, Teheran’s underlying metrics fully support his peripheral results:

Julio Teheran’s Metrics:

  • 3.56 xFIP & 3.48 SIERA in 2014
  • 3.29 xFIP & 3.16 FIP at home
  • 2.78 xFIP & 3.50 FIP in the second half

Teheran is also supported by a very strong Atlanta bullpen that owns a 3.31 ERA and 1.31 WHIP this season, including a 2.58 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home and a 3.26 ERA and 1.32 WHIP at night. Conversely, Los Angeles relievers own a troubling 4.36 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the road and a 3.84 ERA and 1.33 WHIP at night. Let’s also note that the Dodgers will be without shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who was placed on the disabled list Sunday with an oblique strain.

From a technical standpoint, the Braves are 24-7 in their last 31 home games versus teams with a winning record, 44-14 in their last 58 games as large favorites and 8-2 in Teheran’s last ten home starts versus .501 or greater opposition. Take Atlanta as my free sports pick and invest with confidence.

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