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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+3) (-110)
Report: Since 1989, regular season home underdogs of 2.5 or more points that are averaging 30-plus rush attempts per game are 95-36-3 ATS (72.5%) versus teams coming off a win, including 75% ATS since 2016 and 11-2 ATS since December 29, 2019, covering the spread by an average margin by 4.85 points per game. Since 1989, Week 2 teams off a loss in which they outgained their opponent are 60-40 SU and 66-31-3 ATS (68%) versus teams off a win, covering by an average of 2.77 points per game. Since 2004, divisional home underdogs in September affairs are 75-48-1 ATS (61%), including 21-12 ATS (63.6%) since 2018.
NFL home underdogs in September primetime games are 28-21 SU and 32-16-1 ATS (66.7%) since 1999, covering the number by an average of +3.53 points per game. Since 2005, NFL home underdogs in games with totals of 45 points or less are 105-74-7 ATS (58.7%) in weeks 1-3. NFL underdogs of 1 to 5.5 points in the first two weeks of the regular season are 58% ATS over the last decade and 69-39-2 ATS (64%) since 2018. In contrast, NFL favorites of 1 to 3.5 points are just 235-287-20 ATS in September affairs over the past 20 years, the worst of any month. These overvalued favorites are an even worse 93-129-4 ATS (42%) in the first three weeks of the regular season.
Since 2003, Week 2 teams coming off a divisional loss are 22-3 SU and 21-3-1 ATS (87.5%) versus divisional foes provided one additional parameter is met, covering the spread by an average of 8.04 points per game. Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are 34-16-1 SU and ATS (68%) since 2003, producing a net profit of +32.2% in that span. Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 15-14-1 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in Week 2 since 2004, generating a net profit of +30%.
The Saints are 11-27-1 ATS (28.9%) in the first two weeks of the regular season since 2004, falling short of market expectations by an average of 3.91 points per game. New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr is 13-24 SU and 13-23-1 ATS (36.1%) vs. NFC foes. Carr is also a money-burning 16-30 ATS (34.8%) as a favorite.
However, there are several angles favoring the Saints tonight:
- Retread head coaches like Carolina’s Frank Reich are just 79-116 ATS (40.5%) at home
- Since 2013, retread head coaches are a combined 89-135-5 ATS (39.7%) in Weeks 1-10 of their first season with the franchise
- Since 2013, retread head coaches are just 94-126-6 ATS (42.7%) coming off a loss
- Since 2013, NFL rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are 144-271-2 SU and 190-225-2 ATS (45.8%)
- NFL rookie quarterbacks are 1-18-1 SU and 4-16 ATS in the first three weeks of the regular season, and 22-6 to the Under in that span
- Carolina is 11-21 ATS (34%) at home since 2019
Monday Night Football Betting Trends for September 18
- Since 2007, Pittsburgh is 19-3 SU on Monday Night Football, including 12-1 SU since 2014
- Cleveland is 17-32 ATS (35%) versus divisional opponents since 2015 and 13-25 ATS (34%) as a favorite since 2017
- Since 2012, home underdogs in games with totals of 45 points or less are 57-40-2 Under (58.8%), including 27-12 Under (69.2%) since 2019, covering the total by an average of 3.55 points per game
- Since 1989, road favorites that won fewer than eight games the prior season are 79-61 Under (56.4%) in Weeks 1-4, including 27-17 Under (61.4%) since 2015.
- NFL teams that won their season opener by three points or less are 37-18-1 Under (67.3%) in Week 2 since 2005, producing a net profit of +28.8% in that span.
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