Monday Night Football Betting Market Report – 9/18

Sep 18, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Monday’s NFL games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+3) (-110)

Report: Since 1989, regular season home underdogs of 2.5 or more points that are averaging 30-plus rush attempts per game are 95-36-3 ATS (72.5%) versus teams coming off a win, including 75% ATS since 2016 and 11-2 ATS since December 29, 2019, covering the spread by an average margin by 4.85 points per game. Since 1989, Week 2 teams off a loss in which they outgained their opponent are 60-40 SU and 66-31-3 ATS (68%) versus teams off a win, covering by an average of 2.77 points per game. Since 2004, divisional home underdogs in September affairs are 75-48-1 ATS (61%), including 21-12 ATS (63.6%) since 2018.

NFL home underdogs in September primetime games are 28-21 SU and 32-16-1 ATS (66.7%) since 1999, covering the number by an average of +3.53 points per game. Since 2005, NFL home underdogs in games with totals of 45 points or less are 105-74-7 ATS (58.7%) in weeks 1-3. NFL underdogs of 1 to 5.5 points in the first two weeks of the regular season are 58% ATS over the last decade and 69-39-2 ATS (64%) since 2018. In contrast, NFL favorites of 1 to 3.5 points are just 235-287-20 ATS in September affairs over the past 20 years, the worst of any month. These overvalued favorites are an even worse 93-129-4 ATS (42%) in the first three weeks of the regular season.

Since 2003, Week 2 teams coming off a divisional loss are 22-3 SU and 21-3-1 ATS (87.5%) versus divisional foes provided one additional parameter is met, covering the spread by an average of 8.04 points per game.  Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are 34-16-1 SU and ATS (68%) since 2003, producing a net profit of +32.2% in that span.  Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 15-14-1 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in Week 2 since 2004, generating a net profit of +30%.

The Saints are 11-27-1 ATS (28.9%) in the first two weeks of the regular season since 2004, falling short of market expectations by an average of 3.91 points per game.  New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr is 13-24 SU and 13-23-1 ATS (36.1%) vs. NFC foes.  Carr is also a money-burning 16-30 ATS (34.8%) as a favorite.

However, there are several angles favoring the Saints tonight:

  • Retread head coaches like Carolina’s Frank Reich are just 79-116 ATS (40.5%) at home
  • Since 2013, retread head coaches are a combined 89-135-5 ATS (39.7%) in Weeks 1-10 of their first season with the franchise
  • Since 2013, retread head coaches are just 94-126-6 ATS (42.7%) coming off a loss
  • Since 2013, NFL rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are 144-271-2 SU and 190-225-2 ATS (45.8%)
  • NFL rookie quarterbacks are 1-18-1 SU and 4-16 ATS in the first three weeks of the regular season, and 22-6 to the Under in that span
  • Carolina is 11-21 ATS (34%) at home since 2019

Monday Night Football Betting Trends for September 18

  • Since 2007, Pittsburgh is 19-3 SU on Monday Night Football, including 12-1 SU since 2014
  • Cleveland is 17-32 ATS (35%) versus divisional opponents since 2015 and 13-25 ATS (34%) as a favorite since 2017
  • Since 2012, home underdogs in games with totals of 45 points or less are 57-40-2 Under (58.8%), including 27-12 Under (69.2%) since 2019, covering the total by an average of 3.55 points per game
  • Since 1989, road favorites that won fewer than eight games the prior season are 79-61 Under (56.4%) in Weeks 1-4, including 27-17 Under (61.4%) since 2015.
  • NFL teams that won their season opener by three points or less are 37-18-1 Under (67.3%) in Week 2 since 2005, producing a net profit of +28.8% in that span.

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