Matt Moore: Prime Regression Candidate

Jun 4, 2013

While Tampa Bay right-hander Matt Moore boasts a 2.18 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this season, he is a prime regression candidate for the following reasons:

  • According to, Moore “has lost more aggregate movement on his pitches than any other starting pitcher in the American League.”
  • Specifically, Moore’s four-seam fastball has lost nearly four inches of vertical movement, while his change-up has lost more than two inches of horizontal movement.
  • Moore has been the beneficiary of an unsustainable hit rate (21%) and strand rate (87%) this season.

While Moore’s peripheral statistics remain outstanding, the red flags referenced above should have fantasy baseball owners and sports investors alike sounding an alarm.

Matt Moore Update – Immediate Regression at Comerica Park

Shortly after the publishing this blog article, Moore yielded six earned runs on seven hits and six walks in just two innings of work against the Tigers at Comerica Park.  The six walks is an even greater red flag as Moore’s command and control have both declined this season as compared to his body of work in 2012.  I recommend taking a wait-and-see approach with Moore before investing on him in the near future.