Seattle is a profitable 9-3 in its last twelve interleague games versus right-handed starters, 7-3 in its last ten interleague home games and 4-1 in Ariel Miranda’s last five starts.
In contrast, the Marlins are a money-burning 8-21 in their last 29 interleague games, 1-8 in their last nine interleague road games versus left-handed starters and 1-9 in Tom Koehler’s last ten starts overall.
Miranda pitched much better at home last season where he posted a 3.17 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 37.0 innings of work. The 28-year-old southpaw garnered a 23.9% strikeout rate at Safeco Field and should have success against a Miami lineup that is averaging just 4.0 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.
While Koehler toes the rubber with a 3.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 2017, his peripherals tell an entirely different story. The 30-year-old owns a 6.93 FIP and 5.13 xFIP in 11.0 innings pitched, together with woeful strikeout (11.4%) and walk (11.4%) rates.
Koehler has also been the beneficiary of an unsustainable .194 BABIP. He now faces a solid Seattle lineup that is averaging 5.2 runs per game at home (.359 OBP; .816 OPS). The righty was also worse on the road last season where he posted a 4.48 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 4.43 FIP and 4.85 xFIP.
Koehler’s strikeout numbers were worse away from home (7.01 K/9 vs. 8.07 K/9 at home), as was his walk rate (11.0% vs. 10.4% at home). He also struggled in the early stages of last season, posting a 4.50 ERA and 5.76 xFIP in the first five weeks (6.75 K/9; 4.95 BB/9).
Finally, Seattle is coming off a much-needed three-game sweep of the Rangers over the weekend, ending with a two-run rally in the bottom of the ninth on Sunday. Take the Seattle Mariners as Oskeim Sports’ Free Pick for Monday, April 17.
Note: My biggest concern about this game is how the team’s respective bullpens have performed in 2017. Miami’s bullpen has been outstanding, posting a 2.73 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 52 2/3 innings, including a 1.98 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at night and a 2.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games.
Conversely, the Mariners’ bullpen has been a complete disaster, entering tonight’s game with a 6.31 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 41 1/3 innings of work. Seattle relievers have imploded over the last seven games, posting an 8.27 ERA and 2.08 WHIP over 20 2/3 innings (19 ER on 30 H & 13 BB).