Major League Baseball Betting Preview: 5/12/14

May 12, 2014

Los Angeles Angels (+101) at Toronto Blue Jays

Has there been a more surprising story this season than Toronto Left-hander Mark Buehrle, who continues to defy his declining skill set for the second straight season?  Indeed, Buehrle is 6-1 with a 1.91 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this season, including 2-1 at home with a 3.57 ERA and 1.64 WHIP and 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at night.  Despite featuring a fastball that fails to register 85 mph on the radar gun, the veteran southpaw uses his ingenuity to record outs.  “I don’t want to ask too many questions, I don’t want to try to figure out what’s going on,” Buehrle said.  “I’m just going to roll with it and keep it as long as I can.”

Buehrle has a 3.57 ERA at home compared to 0.92 on the road and has struggled against Los Angeles in his career.  He is 2-8 with a 4.86 ERA in 21 career regular-season starts versus the Angels, and his 4.95 ERA is his second-worst against an American League club.  Buehrle also finds little support in Toronto’s bullpen where relievers own a 5.02 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season, including a 5.65 ERA and 1.64 WHIP at night.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles starter C.J. Wilson is 4-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this season, including going 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road and 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his last three starts.  Wilson is 1-3 with a career 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP at the Rogers Centre, although he has allowed just four earned runs in his last two starts in Toronto (12 innings pitched).  Overall, Wilson is 2-2 with a career 3.89 ERA and 1.31 WHIP versus the Blue Jays.

Pro Edge Sports leans with Los Angeles at plus money tonight.

Detroit Tigers (-106) at Baltimore Orioles

Detroit right-hander Rick Porcello is enjoying a solid 2014 campaign wherein he is 5-1 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.  Porcello also takes the mound in excellent form as he is a perfect 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over his last three starts.  The concern for Detroit investors is the fact that Porcello is 0-3 with a 5.19 ERA in three career starts at Camden Yards.  Moreover, Baltimore just activated Chris Davis from the 15-day disabled list Sunday, and he is 5-for-15 with three home runs off Porcello – tied for the most home runs Porcello has allowed.  Overall, Porcello is 2-5 with a career 4.62 ERA and 1.39 WHIP versus the Orioles.

Baltimore right-hander Bud Norris has been dominant at Camden Yards this season where he is 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.  Norris also toes the rubber in excellent form as evidenced by his 3.18 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over his last three starts, including a strong outing at Tampa Bay in his last outing.  However, Norris is 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.58 WHIP versus the Tigers, including yielding a combined 12 earned runs on 18 hits in his last two starts against Detroit – a span covering ten innings.

Baltimore has also struggled at Camden Yards this season where the Orioles are averaging just 3.1 runs per game and have a .623 OPS, which is second worst in the American League.  From a technical standpoint, Detroit is 21-33 (-18.0 units) on the road in competitively-priced games (-125 to +125) and 8-17 (-12.7 units) on the road following an extended home stand, whereas the Orioles are 54-38 (+14.0 units) following a loss and 14-6 (+9.5 units) at night.

This game is difficult to make a call on, but Pro Edge Sports will give a tempered lean to the Tigers behind one of the most underrated pitchers in Major League Baseball.