Major League Baseball Best Bet: Colorado at San Diego

May 2, 2015


Colorado is a money-burning 26-58 as an underdog, 23-58 following a loss, 16-42 with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs and 13-45 on the road. With Jorge De La Rosa on the mound, the Rockies are 1-7 in their last eight road games and 0-6 with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs.

Those are some damning trends, especially when taking into account the fact that San Diego is a profitable 23-8 as a home favorite, 36-17 at home, 25-12 as a favorite and 27-11 versus an opposing pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Let’s also note that the Padres are a perfect 4-0 in Brandon Morrow’s last four starts.

Morrow is 1-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.03 WHIP this season, including posting a 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at Petco Park. I am bullish on the 30-year-old right-hander based upon his underlying metrics:

Morrow’s 2015 Metrics:

3.39 FIP & 3.46 xFIP
3.74 SIERA

Morrow should have success limiting a Colorado lineup that always struggles on the road. Indeed, the Rockies are batting just .258 with a .298 on base percentage away from Coors Field this season (3.8 runs per game). Colorado is also hitting just .259 with a .309 on base percentage versus division opponents (3.5 runs per game) and .286 with a .335 on base percentage over the last seven games (3.7 runs per game).

Colorado sends southpaw Jorge De La Rosa to the mound, and the 34-year-old has always struggled on the road. De La Rosa was 4-9 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.33 WHIP away from Coors Field last season, while also posting a pedestrian 4.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at night. In his first start off the disabled list (April 20), the left-hander allowed nine runs on nine hits in just two innings of work against the Padres.

De La Rosa is also plagued by a truly inept Colorado bullpen that owns a 4.59 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 2015, including a 5.11 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road, a 5.14 ERA and 1.45 WHIP at night, a 5.49 ERA and 1.53 WHIP versus division foes and a 6.23 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over the last seven games.

The veteran also faces a San Diego squad that is batting .318 with a .356 on base percentage versus southpaws (6.8 runs per game) and .290 with a .446 on base percentage at night (5.9 runs per game).  Take the Padres at a very reasonable price in this Major League Baseball battle and invest with confidence.

Major League Baseball Best Bet: San Diego Padres