Kansas State Looks to Avenge Loss in Ames & Improve to 20-9 on Season

Mar 1, 2014

Kansas State (-1) (-110) over Iowa State

Analysis: Kansas State is a perfect 7-0 ATS versus teams with a win percentage exceeding .800 so we can expect a very focused effort from the Wildcats tonight. The Wildcats are also 62-37 ATS at home following a win, 19-8 ATS at home off a road win and a perfect 7-0 ATS as home favorites, whereas Iowa State is a money-burning 3-10 ATS after consecutive conference games. This game will ultimately be won on the defensive end of the floor where Kansas State is limiting opponents to just 63.7 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field and 28.4% from beyond the arc. More importantly, the Wildcats are 14-1 SU and 8-4 ATS at home this season where they are limiting opponents to a mere 59.7 points per game on 37.7% shooting from the floor and 24.5% from three-point territory.

Overall, Kansas State is 10.3 points per game better than average defensively, which is good enough to slow down an Iowa State attack that is 13.1 points per game better than average (83.6 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 70.5 points per game). The problem for Iowa State is a woefully inadequate defense that is yielding 79.1 points per game on the road and 77.3 points per game versus conference opponents. Kansas State also takes the floor looking to avenge an 81-75 loss in Ames last month wherein the Wildcats gave up an uncharacteristic 48.1% from the field. And, that revenge angle is significant in that Kansas State head coach Bruce Weber is 35-6 SU and 28-10 ATS at home with revenge if his team’s win percentage is .650 or greater. I also like the fact that Kansas State is 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in this series.

Kansas State is 50-15 (.769) at home versus conference opponents since 2006, including 15-1 under coach Weber. Overall, the Wildcats are 31-2 at home under coach Weber, and I expect win #32 tonight before a sold-out Bramlage Coliseum. Take Kansas State on the money line and invest with confidence.