Miami right-hander Jose Fernandez remains one of the elite arms in baseball, going 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 2016. The 23-year-old is also 6-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home, 6-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at night, 4-0 with a 1.16 ERA and 0.93 WHIP versus division opponents and 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in his last three outings.
Those phenomenal results are backed by equally-impressive peripherals: 2.00 FIP, 2.33 xFIP, 2.52 SIERA, 37.5% K% and a 29.5% K-BB%. At home, Fernandez owns a 1.52 FIP, 1.98 xFIP, 41.6% K%, 7.2% BB% and a 34.3% K-BB%.
Technically speaking, the Marlins are 36-15 in Jose Fernandez’s last 51 starts, including 27-2 in his last 29 home starts, 11-1 in his last 12 home starts versus ,499 or worse opposition, 6-0 in his last six outings versus National League East foes and 4-0 in Fernandez’s last four starts following a team loss.
Atlanta’s offense, which is averaging just 3.4 runs per game this season (.235 AVG.; .296 OBP; .620 OPS), including 3.3 runs per game versus division opponents (.232 AVG.; .290 OBP; .604 OPS), will struggle to plate runs tonight against one of the best pitchers in the Majors.
Meanwhile, 31-year-old Bud Norris toes the rubber for the Braves with a 4.81 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 4.38 xFIP and a 4.56 SIERA. Norris has not been a full-time starter since 2014 and, in fact, his last 20 appearances entering 2016 came in relief.
His command remains suspect at best (10.3% BB%) and he is 1-3 with an 8.64 ERA and 2.22 WHIP on the road and 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.68 WHIP versus division opponents this season. Norris also owns a 6.27 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in six career starts against the Marlins.
With Atlanta standing at a money-burning 20-50 in its last 70 road games, 16-40 in its last 56 road games versus a right-handed starter and 8-26 in its last 34 games versus a starting pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15, take the Marlins on the run line behind the right arm of Jose Fernandez and invest with confidence.