Miami right-hander Jose Fernandez is the best pitcher in baseball, and his elite skills are at their best within the confines of Marlins Park. Fernandez allowed one run and eight hits while striking out 17 with two walks in 12 2/3-innings to win his first two home games this season. Overall, Fernandez is a perfect 11-0 with a 1.14 ERA in seventeen starts at Marlins Park. From a technical standpoint, Fernandez is 20-11 (+12.5 units) over the last two seasons, including 15-6 (+10.9 units) with a total of seven runs or less, 9-0 (+9.0 units) as a home favorite, 17-5 (+14.5 units) at night and 9-1 (+8.8 units) following a win.
In contrast, the Nationals are just 14-35 (-17.6 units) as underdogs, including 9-32 (-19.9 units) as road underdogs. From a fundamental perspective, the Marlins are 6-3 at home this season where they are batting .301 with a .359 on base percentage (6.1 runs per game). We also like the fact that Miami is hitting .294 with a .365 on base percentage at night (5.4 runs per game). Moreover, Fernandez was 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA in thirteen innings pitched against the Nationals in his rookie campaign. Current Washington batters have a lifetime .308 OPS against Fernandez, and he’s facing a depleted Nationals’ lineup that is missing several starters.
Pro Edge also likes the fact that Fernandez is supported by a decent Miami bullpen that owns a 1.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at home and a 3.40 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at night this season. We also expect Miami to improve upon there offensive numbers against a Washington squad that is allowing 5.7 runs per game on the road and 6.3 runs over its last seven games. Meanwhile, Washington right-hander Tanner Roark has a 5.90 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in two starts this season. Those numbers are bad news for a Washington team that has lost four of its last five games, including last night’s embarrassing 11-2 loss to the Marlins. “One of those games,” manager Matt Williams said. “But nonetheless it’s important that we play well, and we didn’t. That’s troubling.”
Pro Edge Sports Pick: Miami Marlins (-137)