IPFW possesses one of the most prolific offenses in college basketball as the Mastodons are averaging 76.7 points per game on 48.9% shooting from the field and 40.1% from beyond the arc. More importantly, the Mastodons are 11-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home this season where they are averaging an impressive 87.7 points per game on 54.2% shooting from the floor and 44.2% from three-point territory. IPFW’s shooting percentage is the tenth-best team total in the country as three players are shooting at least 50% from the field. Forward Steve Forbes is averaging 12.2 points per game on 63.8% shooting, while forward Joe Reed (55.2%) and guard Pierre Bland (51.5%) are both eclipsing the 50% mark from the floor.
IPFW should have an easy time exploiting a pedestrian South Dakota defense that is allowing 71.4 points per game to teams that would combine to average 70.1 points per game. However, the problem for the Coyotes is the fact that they are 1-11 on the road where they are yielding 77.2 points per game on 41.8% shooting from beyond the arc. Overall, South Dakota is 1.3 points per game worse than average defensively, although that projection is far too conservative in light of the team’s respective home/road splits (dichotomy) this season. Specifically, IPFW is averaging 87.7 points per game at home, which is 11.0 points per game above its season average, whereas the Coyotes are giving up 77.2 points per game on the road, which is 5.8 points per game worse than their season average.
IPFW’s substantial advantage on the offensive end of the floor is significant in that the Mastodon’s are 25-6 SU when shooting 50% or better from the field under head coach Tony Jasick, including 11-1 SU this season. Moreover, if IPFW has a greater field goal percentage than its opponent, the Mastodon’s are 34-9 under coach Jasick, including 14 this season. The likelihood of both scenarios above playing out is extremely high based upon the fact that IPFW is shooting 54.2% at home, whereas the Coyotes are shooting 40.3% on the road. The situation also favors the Mastodon’s as they are anxious to avenge an embarrassing 75-61 loss at South Dakota last month. Meanwhile, the Coyotes arrive in town having lost five of its last six games, with their only win coming against Peru State.
From a technical standpoint, IPFW is 8-1 ATS in the month of February and 18-9 ATS after covering the point spread in its previous game. Finally, my power ratings have IPFW at 183 (out of 351 teams), whereas South Dakota is ranked 221. Lay the points with the Mastodons and invest with confidence.