We have been extremely bullish on Iowa this season as our experts and regional sources believe the Hawkeyes are a legitimate Final Four team.
Iowa’s Offense:
Iowa is a perfect 10-0 at home this season where the Hawkeyes are averaging 89.9 points per game on 50.3% shooting from the field and 41.3% shooting from beyond the arc. Overall, Iowa is averaging 86.4 points per game against teams that would combine to allow just 69.5 points per game to a mediocre offensive squad, thereby making the Hawkeyes 16.9 points per game better than average offensively this season.
Iowa’s Defense:
What makes Iowa a legitimate National Title contender is the fact that the Hawkeyes possess an outstanding defense that is limiting opponents to a mere 61.0 points per game on 34.3% shooting from the field and 23.1% from three-point territory. Overall, Iowa is allowing 66.2 points per game to teams that would combine to average 72.1 points per game, which is 5.9 points per game better than average defensively.
With impressive wins over Xavier, Notre Dame and Ohio State, the Hawkeyes have proven more than capable of winning against elite opposition. The technical analysis also favors Iowa as the oddsmakers have consistently underrated coach Fran McCaffery’s squad.
Technical Analysis:
- Iowa is 23-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record
- Iowa is 15-3 ATS versus teams with a win percentage between .600 and .800
- Iowa is 10-2 ATS versus good teams who are outscoring their opponents by eight or more points per game
- Iowa is 34-15 ATS over the last two seasons, including 22-10 ATS as a favorite and 15-5 as a home favorite
- Iowa is 17-7 ATS versus conference opponents and 10-2 ATS following a conference win
- Iowa is 26-9 ATS off one or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons
As for today’s game against Minnesota, Iowa should dominate a decent Golden Gopher squad that is 5.8 points per game better than average offensively and 8.2 points per game better than average defensively. Minnesota is a much different team on the road where the Gophers are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS, including a double-digit loss at Michigan State on January 11. Outside of last week’s contest, Minnesota has not been challenged on foreign soil as the Gophers have had easy trips to Richmond, Chaminade and Penn State.
Lay the points with Iowa today and don’t be surprised to see the Hawkeyes dancing in the Final Four come March.