NFL fans and bettors know how exciting games can be. NFL survivor pools add intrigue.
In an NFL survivor pool, your goal is to survive. Here’s a complete guide to the rules, how to play, and a few tips on how to win.
NFL Survivor Pool Basics
Pick one NFL team to win each week in a survivor pool. In most of these pools, you can’t pick a team to win more than once. If you use Kansas City in Week 1, you can’t use the Chiefs again for the rest of the season.
Win and stay in the pool. Lose and you’re out. It’s that simple. That’s an NFL survivor pool.
Pool Fundamentals
You’ll likely pay a fee to enter the competition. Last person standing is the winner and he takes home the pot.
Each week, a player picks a team. Let’s say you pick the Chiefs to beat the Texans. Kansas City wins and you advance to the next week. You cannot pick the Chiefs again for the rest of the season.
If you had picked Houston in this game, you would be eliminated from the competition.
Pool Rules
The survivor pool owner can change the rules. Some pools have a second-place bracket. After one loss, you’re in the second-place bracket. Lose twice…and you’re out.
Some leagues make two weekly picks. Predict both results to proceed. You’re eliminated otherwise.
Competitions will have ties. Most pools break ties by winning margin. The player that picked the team that won by the most points is declared the winner.
NFL Survivor Pool Strategies
As with NFL live betting, there are some excellent survivor pool strategies. Early-season rescues aren’t wise. In Week 1 between Kansas City and Houston, pick the Chiefs if you think they’ll win. A KC win advances you to the next round.
Smart bets include betting against a specific team. If you bet against the Browns in 2017, you probably won. The Browns were the second NFL team to go winless in 16 games. You only needed to pick another team correctly when they faced a division opponent the second time.
If possible, avoid Thursday games. Teams that play on Thursday traditionally played Sunday, giving them four days off. Also, make survivor pool picks later rather than sooner. Picking late allows you to get last-minute injury updates or other information that could affect a game’s outcome.
Survivor pool participants obsess over winning this week. They’re shortsighted. Losing in Week 1 or in Week 14 pays the exact same amount – $0.
Each week’s picks should consider the entire NFL season. When choosing, consider future schedules. Don’t make 18 weekly decisions.
More In-Depth Strategies
Players should watch which teams the other players in the pool pick. If you pick the most popular team each week, you may advance, but so will everyone else.
Expected value is important. This shows the importance of picking a team based on its odds of winning and the number of entries that advance. The expected value of picking that side diminishes as more people forecast victory.
If you win and the popular team wins, you’re less likely to be removed. Remember, outlive everyone.
Remember these numbers when picking your team each week. Keep in mind these numbers about NFL favorites over the last decade:
1-point favorites won 52 percent of the time.
4-point favorites win 66 percent of the time.
7-point favorites win 76 percent of the time.
10-point favorites win 84 percent of the time.
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