Wright State has quietly become one of the hottest teams in the nation, winning six straight against its fellow Horizon League foes and finished the regular season on an impressive 14-5 run. The Raiders advanced to the Horizon League Championship by holding Oakland to a season-low 55 points last night at Joe Louis Arena and we are coming right back to them as our free sports pick for Tuesday.
Wright State’s success is predicated upon a suffocating defense that is allowing 65.4 points per game to teams that would combine to average 73.5 points per game. The Raiders are 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS over the last five games where they are limiting opponents to a mere 50.4 points on 38.1% shooting from the field and 27.9% from beyond the arc.
Green Bay arrives in the Horizon League Championship by knocking off No. 1 Valparaiso 99-92 in overtime last night. The Phoenix made a three-pointer with :39 seconds left and converted a layup at the buzzer to force overtime, and one has to wonder how much Green Bay has left in the tank after Monday’s emotional overtime win.
Unlike Wright State, the Phoenix possess a terrible defense that is allowing 80.0 points per game to teams that would combine to average 72.8 points per game. Green Bay is also yielding 81.0 points per game in conference play and 82.5 points over its last five games.
Overall, Wright State is 8.1 points per game better than average defensively, whereas the Phoenix are 7.2 points per game worse than average at the defensive end of the floor. However, Green Bay possesses a significant advantage offensively where it is averaging 84.4 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 74.1 points per game.
In contrast, the Raiders’ attack is 5.5 points per game worse than average (68.5 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 74.0 points per game). However, Wright State’s offense has improved recently, averaging 71.4 points on 47.6% shooting from the floor and 39.1% shooting from beyond the arc over its last five games. The Raiders are also 16-5 SU in conference play where they are averaging 71.6 points per game on 47.2% FG and 37.6% 3-PT.
My math model gives a slight edge to Wright State, who actually swept the season-series against No. 1 Valparaiso (73-62; 61-59). Finally, no lead is safe with Green Bay, who is shooting a woeful 65.7% from the free throw line this season (Wright State at 69.2%).
With Wright State standing at 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games and 4-1 ATS in its last five games versus teams with a winning record, take the Raiders to secure a spot in the upcoming NCAA Tournament as Oskeim Sports’ free sports pick and invest with confidence.
Oskeim Sports’ Free Sports Pick: Wright State (pk) (-110) over Wisconsin Green Bay