Georgia is a Live Home Underdog on Thursday

Feb 6, 2014

The betting public certainly has no interest in risking their hard-earned money on Georgia, who has lost three consecutive games and failed to cover the point spread in all three contests.  Wagering on the Bulldogs becomes even more untenable in light of their opponent – LSU – who is coming off consecutive wins over Kentucky and Arkansas. However, Pro Edge Sports likes to take a contrarian approach to sports betting because the most difficult wagers to place are usually the ones that offer the best value.

Georgia is 9-2 SU and 6-3 at home this season where the Bulldogs are limiting opponents to a mere 62.0 points per game on 37.0% shooting from the field.  Overall, Georgia is yielding 68.9 points per game to teams that would combine to average 73.0 points per game, thereby making the Bulldogs 4.1 points per game better than average defensively. Despite possessing a solid defense, LSU still maintains a nominal 2.6 points per game advantage offensively over the Bulldogs’ stop unit.

Georgia’s one constant in league play this season has been its rebounding.  Georgia has outrebounded seven of its eight league opponents thus far.  The one exception?  Florida, which it tied with 34 boards apiece.  The Bulldogs lead the SEC in offensive rebounding through eight conference games at 15.3 per game.  From an offensive standpoint, Georgia is merely average as the Bulldogs are averaging 69.2 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 69.4 points per game.  However, in 12 of 19 games this season, the Bulldogs have scored well over their seasonal average of 60.8 points per game from last season.  The team’s overall shooting percentage has also risen from 40.8% from last season to its current mark of 45.5%.  Georgia has also shot over 50% from the field in eight games, more than twice as often as in all of 2012-13.

With the return of sophomore guard Kenny Gaines, who returned to action last week after missing the previous two games with a leg injury, the Bulldogs should have success exploiting a soft LSU defense that is allowing 76.0 points per game on the road, including 40.5% shooting from beyond the arc.  Georgia is 6-2 SU at home in this series and our math model only favors LSU by one point so the value rests with the home underdog.

Pro Edge Sports Pick: Georgia (+3) (-110)