Game: Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego
Time: 10:10 PM ET
Starting Pitchers: Matt Moore va. Blake Snell
Odds: Phillies +190, Padres -210
After the All-Star break, the Phillies ripped off an eight-game winning streak and took over first place in the NL East. Then, the wheels fell off the Philly bus. Philadelphia has lost seven of its last nine games and four straight. They will face another playoff-caliber team in San Diego that is fighting its own struggles.
San Diego sits in third place in the Uber-competitive NL West. The Padres have lost seven of their last eight games including their last three straight. Which team can break out of its slump?
Betting tonight’s game comes down to the pitching matchup. For Philly, it will be Matt Moore who’s 2-3 this season. A better indicator of Moore’s performance this season is his ERA of 6.07. There is no question Moore throws hard. His problem is that he gives up too many hard-hit balls. His strikeout percentage is decent at 22.4 percent but allowing so much contact allows base runners. That means more potential runs scored.
In his last seven appearances, Moore has pitched 29 innings. His ERA over that span is 6.52. His FIP of 5.18 indicates that he doesn’t pitch all that poorly and some positive regression may be coming in the near future.
There is no question San Diego’s Blake Snell is the better pitcher in this matchup. His issue is that he has underperformed in 2021. A former Cy Young winner, Snell is 6-4 this season with a 4.80. That’s not an ERA typical of Cy Young caliber pitchers.
In his last five starts though, Snell has been moving in the right direction. His ERA in those five games is a more respectable 3.67. In his last three starts, Snell has allowed just three earned runs and has picked up two wins. He will go up against a slumping Phillies lineup. Philadelphia is batting just .149 and averaging just two runs per game in their last three games.
The Padres are still one of the top-hitting teams in MLB. They are ninth in batting average (.247) and tenth in runs per game (4.72). They just happened to catch Arizona and Colorado at the wrong time. The Rockies are outstanding at home and the D-Backs got hot at the right time.
That’s why San Diego is such a big favorite tonight’s game. Slump or not, the Padres are still one of the best teams in baseball. While there is t as much value on the money line, the Padres to cover on the run line (-1.5, -105) makes more sense. The Phillies have covered the spread just three times in their last nine games.
The Phillies lineup combines with Snell’s recent performances lends tonight’s total toward the Under. San Diego actually struggles against left-handed pitching too.