Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers
Time: 7:40 PM ET
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs. Eric Lauer
Odds: Phillies -107, Brewers -103
The Phillies continue their attempt at re-taking the NL East Division lead. Philadelphia has won eight of its last ten games to pull within 1.5 games of division leader Atlanta. In the NL wild-card race, the Dodgers currently hold the No. 1 wild card with San Diego and Cincinnati battling for No. 2. The Phillies are currently third in that race. A win over Milwaukee tonight can bring them closer to their ultimate goal.
Getting a victory tonight would appear to be difficult against the NL Central Division leader and the team with the second-best record in the National League. However, the Brewers have some injury issues and they will have Eric Lauer on the mound. Lauer doesn’t look like all that bad of a pitcher. He owns a 4-5 record this season and his ERA is a respectable 3.22, but he has not done well against Philadelphia in his career.
Phillies starters have a .310 batting average and over a .600 slugging percentage against Lauer. He has pitched once against Philly this season and that didn’t go so well either. In six innings, he gave up eight hits and allowed six runs. Lauer shouldn’t feel all that bad though. Philadelphia has a habit of hitting well against left-handed pitchers. The Phillies rank in the top ten in OPS and on-base percentage when facing lefties.
While Philadelphia should get after Lauer, Milwaukee will face Aaron Nola and must do so without Kolten Wong (.279) and Willy Adames (.294, 17 HR, 51 RBI). As good as the Brewers are, they are not one of the better offensive teams in MLB. They score 4.57 runs a game, which is 13th overall, but they are not what one would call a powerful lineup. The Brewers rank 23rd in slugging percentage (.398), 19th in OPS (.716), and 18th in ISO (.163).
What Milwaukee does, however, is win games. The Brewers had won six of eight before yesterday’s game. Philadelphia went off on Milwaukee hitting six home runs in a 12-0 victory. It was Philadelphia’s fifth straight win over Milwaukee this season.
Philadelphia will start Aaron Nola tonight against the Brewers. He enters tonight with a 4.54 ERA and a 7-7 record. If Nola has been anything in 2021, he has been inconsistent. In his last start against Washington, Nola had some issues with control. He would give up six hits and six runs in just four innings. Nola has pitched against Milwaukee this season and it was a good one. He pitched six innings against the Brewers and allowed just one run on five hits.
When Nola faced Milwaukee, he pitched against a full Brewers lineup which included Wong and Adames. Without those two tonight, it may make Nola’s job a bit easier. What may also be easy is scoring some runs. Bettors looking at tonight’s total of 8 should consider the following. In Philadelphia’s last 12 games, the combined scores have totaled 11.27 runs. Nine of those games went Over the total. In Nola’s last four starts, the Over is 3-1.