Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Betting Preview – 9/30

Sep 30, 2021

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Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves 

Time: 7:20 PM ET 

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson vs. Ian Anderson 

Odds: Phillies +135, Braves -144 

Philadelphia’s playoff hopes continue to fade. They lost the first two games of their current series with the Braves and will now need to win all four of the remaining games and still need some help to win the NL East. Those hopes will rest mostly on the right arm of Kyle Gibson. 

The Phillies have not reaped the benefits of trading for Gibson during the season. Since coming over from Texas, Gibson hasn’t enjoyed the same level of success. He is just 4-5 with an ERA that is two points higher than it was in Texas. For the season, Gibson is 10-8 with a respectable ERA of 3.44. 

Gibson hasn’t produced a win in any of his past three starts, but he did keep the games close and give Philly a chance. He also struck out 22 batters in 17.2 innings over those three starts. This will be Gibson’s first start against Atlanta this season.  

He’ll face a lineup that is sneaky good. Atlanta has won five straight and nine of its last ten games thanks to an offense that is averaging six runs a game over its last ten. Remember, this is a lineup that features three 30-plus home run hitters. Gibson will have his hands full trying to slow down the Braves.  

The Braves will go with Ian Anderson in this one. Anderson is coming off his best start of the 2021 season. In his last trip to the mound, Anderson went seven innings against Arizona. He struck out eight and allowed just one earned run as the Braves won 9-2. Anderson has two wins in his last three starts. In the other victory over Miami, he struck out nine and gave up two earned runs. 

The Braves control their own destiny in the playoff race. After tonight’s game, they have a three-game series with the Mets remaining. A win tonight over Philadelphia would not only give the Braves the three-game sweep, it would also clinch Atlanta’s fourth straight NL East Division title. 

Truist Park in Atlanta is one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors. Tonight’s weather at game time shows temperatures in the 70s with just a slight wind out of the southeast. The Braves are bit more likely to see the total go Over especially since it is the favorite tonight. The total has gone Over in four of the Braves’ last six games when they were the favorite. 

The Over is also the trend at Truist Park. The Over is 39-28-8 in Braves’ games played there. The overall Over/Under for Atlanta is 73-74-9 further showing the impact of playing at Truist Park. Tonight’s total is 8.5. The Phillies have trended toward the Under. Seven of their last ten games have seen the total go Under. Neither bullpen is that strong. Both rank in the middle of the pack in bullpen ERA. The more innings both bullpens throw; the more likely the total goes Over.