The professional handicappers at Oskeim Sports have the winning information you need before betting on Saturday’s MLB games. Oskeim’s MLB game previews and Betting Market Report gives you the winning edge.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) (-150) at Kansas City Royals
Analysis: Since August 1, 2011, road favorites of -148 or greater in August affairs with a total of less than 10.5 runs are 385-181 (+6.1% ROI) straight-up and 308-258 (+4.1% ROI) against the run line. Since 2016, road favorites of -200 or greater are 382-144 (+4.7% ROI) straight-up and 318-207 (+3.7% ROI) against the run line. Since September 1, 2012, the Royals are 22-96 (-45.1% ROI) straight-up and 46-73 (-23.0% ROI) against the run line as underdogs priced between +170 and +359 following a game as underdogs in which they had more than three hits, including at least one home run. This situation is 4-24 (-50.5% ROI) straight-up and 8-20 (-55.0% ROI) against the run line since 2021.
Since September 12, 2019, the Dodgers are 53-22 (+10.3% ROI) straight-up and 44-31 (+12.1% ROI) against the run line as road favorites following a game in which their bullpen allowed more than one run. Finally, home teams off a loss are 10-28 (-41.0% ROI) straight-up and 12-26 (-35.2% ROI) against the run line versus an opponent off eight or more consecutive wins. Take Los Angeles and invest with confidence.
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros (-1.5) (-140)
Analysis: Since September 21, 2018, the Astros are 35-6 (+17.4% ROI) straight-up and 30-11 (+25.4% ROI) against the run line in divisional home affairs versus opponents with twelve or more losses on the season. This situation is 14-4 straight-up and against the run line since September 21, 2019. Since August 29, 2018, the Athletics are 14-38 (-19.7%) straight-up and -4.5% ROI against the run line as underdogs of more than +160. Since 2015, .610 or greater home favorites in game 27 forward are 92-41 (+8.6% ROI) straight-up and +3.0% ROI against the run line in games with a start time between 1600 and 1900.
Since September 20, 2018, the Astros are 42-15 (+12.4% ROI) straight-up and +2.0% ROI against the run line in home divisional affairs versus left-handed starters. Finally, Houston falls into a profitable 539-167 (+7.1% ROI) straight-up and 411-295 (+4.4% ROI) run line system that invest on certain large home favorites from game 40 out. Take the Astros and invest with confidence.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (-119)
Analysis: Chicago right-hander Adrian Sampson toes the rubber with a 3.83 ERA and 3.71 FIP in ten appearances (8 starts) this season, a span covering 49 1/3 innings. The 30-year-old has a 3.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in two career starts against the Reds and should have continued success against a Cincinnati offense that has the fourth-highest strikeout rate (24.2% K%) in the majors. Cincinnati right-hander Graham Ashcroft owns a 3.94 ERA and 4.02 FIP across fourteen starts (80.0 IP) but is hampered by the worst bullpen in the league. Cincinnati relievers are ranked 30th in both ERA (5.01) and FIP (4.62).
Finally, Cincinnati falls into a very negative 8-20 (-24.0 ROI) team situation that invests against the Reds following a game in which they scored two or more runs and had more than ten strikeouts. Take Chicago and invest with confidence.
MLB Betting Trends for Saturday, August 13
- Since 2019, home divisional favorites of -165 or greater are 224-76 (+10.6% ROI) straight-up and 170-130 (+10.3% ROI) against the run line following a loss.
- Since August 1, 2011, road favorites of -148 or greater in August affairs with a total of less than 10.5 runs are 385-181 (+6.1% ROI) straight-up and 308-258 (+4.1% ROI) against the run line.
- Since 2016, road favorites of -200 or greater are 382-144 (+4.7% ROI) straight-up and 318-207 (+3.7% ROI) against the run line.
- Since May 27, 2019, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 11-30 (-22.9% ROI) straight-up and 17-23 (-24.0% ROI) against the run line on the road in game 2 (or beyond) of a series following a game in which they issued five or more walks.
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