Game: Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Starting Pitchers: Chris Ellis vs. Robbie Ray
Odds: Orioles +280, Blue Jays -300
It’s Toronto’s offense that gets most of the hype, but the Blue Jays pitching is what has helped more recently. Over the past week, Toronto’s powerful lineup ranked just 24th in OPS. In three weekend games against Detroit, the Blue Jays managed a total of only six runs. Toronto has been leaving plenty of runners in scoring position. In Sunday’s 2-1 win over the Tigers, the Blue Jays stranded five, but that should improve against what is the worst pitching staff in the majors.
Baltimore has the worst ERA in baseball. The Orioles staff combines for a 5.87 ERA. You don’t win many games giving up six runs every night. Starting for Baltimore tonight is Chris Ellis who is making just his second start of the season. Ellis is 1-0 on the season with a 3.86 ERA. He started last week against the Angels and pitched three innings allowing three earned runs. He was not involved in the decision, but the Orioles won 10-6.
While the Orioles have had their pitching staff struggles in 2021, Toronto pitchers have fared very well recently. Robbie Ray will start for the Jays and he has been dominant as of late. In his last 45 innings, Ray’s ERA is just 2.20 with a WHIP of 0.98. He has struck out 54 batters and walked just 11. For the season, Ray is 9-5 with a 2.72 ERA in 26 starts this season. He has been going deep into games as well. Ray has pitched at least six innings in each of his last six starts.
This will be the first time that Toronto faces Ellis all season. It may take a trip through the order to get situated, but the Blue Jays bats can’t stay dormant for long. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.312) is third in the majors in home runs with 36 and teammate Marcus Simien isn’t far behind in fifth place with 32. Guerrero is also in the top five in RBIs with 91.
As a team, Toronto scores 4.98 runs per game (6th in MLB) and is second in the majors in home runs to San Francisco. Against Baltimore this season, Toronto is 6-3 and has won all six games by multiple runs. In fact, the closest game won by the Blue Jays was a 5-2 victory. Toronto has scored in double digits in three of those six wins and scored nine in another.
As a result of Toronto’s lineup plus their success against the Orioles, tonight’s total is 9.5. The Blue Jays have gone Under at home in the Rogers Centre in six of their last seven. Six of the nine games the Blue Jays and Orioles have played this season have gone Over 9.5.
With Toronto priced so high on the money line, the value may be on the run line where bettors can find the Blue Jays -1.5 at -155.