The professional handicappers at Oskeim Sports have the winning information you need before betting on Sunday’s NFL games. Oskeim’s NFL game previews and Betting Market Report gives you the winning edge.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) (-110) over Washington Commanders
Analysis: The quarterback matchup features the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft (Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence) and the No. 2 selection in 2016 (Washington’s Carson Wentz). Lawrence struggled as a rookie (turned the ball over 22 times) but is primed for a breakout sophomore campaign under new head coach Doug Pederson. Meanwhile, Wentz was traded for the second consecutive offseason and was sacked six times and intercepted once by Jacksonville in last year’s start for the Colts.
NFL underdogs have covered the spread in more games than favorites in four consecutive regular seasons. Since 2018, underdogs have covered the spread in 53.6% of regular-season games. Last season, underdogs won nearly 37% of the games straight-up (99 outright upsets overall, most since 2006), tying for the highest winning percentage by underdogs since 2005. Nine underdogs won their season openers outright last year.
Since 2008, NFL road underdogs of less than a touchdown that won fewer than seven games the previous season are a profitable 290-202 ATS (58.9%), including 128-65 ATS (66.3%) in the first four weeks of the regular season. Since September 13, 2010, these teams are 20-8 ATS in season-openers. Jacksonville also falls into a very good 128-89 ATS NFL system of mine that dates to 1983 and invests on certain underdogs in Week One if they won fewer than seven games the previous season.
Week One NFL road underdogs that failed to make the playoffs are 73-46-4 ATS (61.3%), beating the spread by 3.44 points per game. Week One road underdogs of three points or less are 18-5 ATS (78%) over the past decade. Since 2011, teams that covered the spread in no more than 1/3 of their games the previous season are 63-42 ATS in Week One.
Since 2018, Washington is just 4-8 ATS as a favorite, including 3-4 ATS under head coach Ron Rivera. The Commanders are 1-5 ATS in September affairs under Rivera, including 0-3 ATS last season. Take Jacksonville and invest with confidence.
Jacksonville Alert: The Jaguars had 29 turnovers last season, tied for the second most in the NFL. Jacksonville was outscored by 204 points, worst in the NFL and in franchise history, and never scored more than 26 points in a game.
New Head Coaches: Over the last four seasons, new head coaches making their team debut are a money-burning 3-19-1 SU and 7-16 ATS. On Sunday, Jacksonville, Chicago, Denver, Miami, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Houston, Minnesota, and the Giants will be featuring new head coaches.
New York Giants (+5.5) (-110) over Tennessee Titans
Analysis: Week One NFL road underdogs that failed to make the playoffs are 73-46-4 ATS (61.3%), beating the spread by 3.44 points per game. Since 2008, NFL road underdogs of less than a touchdown that won fewer than seven games the previous season are a profitable 290-202 ATS (58.9%), including 128-65 ATS (66.3%) in the first four weeks of the regular season. Since September 13, 2010, these teams are 20-8 ATS in season-openers.
Tennessee starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill will face aggressive blitz packages from Giants defensive coordinator Don Martindale, whose blitz percentage with the Ravens led the NFL for three seasons before finishing sixth last year. The bad news for Tannehill is that Tennessee’s offensive line features two new starters and he’s throwing to a new group of receivers. Take New York and invest with confidence.
New York Alert: The Giants are 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS in September games in the past two seasons. Since 2016, the Giants are 6-13-1 ATS in September, and in the past ten seasons, they are 10-20-1 ATS in September affairs. The Giants are 0-5 SU and ATS in their past five season openers.
Additional NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, September 11
- Since 2009, Week One NFL divisional underdogs are a profitable 47-22-2 ATS (68.1%), including 28-9 ATS (75.7%) since September 10, 2013.
- Since 1989, Week One NFL divisional underdogs with regular season double revenge are 60-38 ATS (61.2%), including 25-8 ATS (75.8%) since 2009.
- Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 65-29-1 ATS versus divisional foes, including 10-4-1 ATS in first division contests of the season.
- Since 2010, divisional home underdogs (excluding AFC East teams) of more than one point are 15-2 ATS in season openers, including a perfect 8-0 ATS since September 14, 2015.
- Since 2010, NFL divisional home underdogs of six points or less that won two or more games the prior season are 12-0 SU and ATS versus opponents that finished the regular season at least two games ahead of them.
- The Minnesota Vikings are 32-17 straight-up at home since 2016, the second-best home record in the division over that span.
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