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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) (-110)
Analysis: Despite losing its season-opener, Jacksonville outgained Washington 6.2 yards per play to 5.6 yards per play and finished with a better early down success rate. The Jaguars converted a new series of first downs at the eighth-highest rate in the league and finished with a top four offense in EPA/play and success rate on first and second down. The biggest takeaway from Jacksonville’s season-opener is how much better the team looks under new head coach Doug Pederson compared to Urban Meyer’s failed regime.
Trevor Lawrence looked comfortable under Pederson’s new offense and did not hesitate to be aggressive. His 10.6 average depth of target ranked second among starting quarterbacks in Week One after ranking around average in 2021. Jacksonville is 12-1 ATS in this series (5-0 ATS L/5 meetings), including 10-0-1 ATS when playing with less than eight days of rest.
The Colts have lost seven consecutive road games to the Jaguars (one was in London in 2016) and have lost those seven games by an average of 14.9 points per game. Indianapolis has not won in Jacksonville since September 21, 2014! The Colts are 4-11 ATS in their past fifteen games versus divisional opponents. The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in Game Two of the season and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as divisional home underdogs.
Since 1989, Indianapolis is 1-6-1 ATS on the road versus divisional opponents following a road game in which they failed to cover the spread if the line is longer than the previous meeting and shorter than +11.5. The Colts played to a 20-20 tie against Houston in Week One, which is significant in that these teams have covered the spread in just 6 of 17 games the following week when seeking division revenge (0-3 ATS L/3). Grab the live home underdog and invest with confidence.
Indianapolis Alert: Since 2002, Week One favorites of six points or more that lost (or tied) are 18-4 SU and ATS in Week Two. Since 2003, teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week Two are 33-13-1 SU and 32-14-1 ATS. Over the last ten seasons, teams that lost (or tied) as road favorites in Week One are 16-10 SU and 19-9 ATS in their next game. Jacksonville is 6-14 ATS in their past 20 games as an underdog.
NFL Betting Trends & Nuggets for Sunday, September 18
- In last year’s meeting, Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson faced 24 defensive back blitzes from the Dolphins, the most faced by any quarterback since 2015.
- On passes thrown 10-20 yards downfield last season, Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a 39.7 QBR (29th), 47.3% completion percentage (27th) and a 0-6 TD-INT ratio.
- This will be the first Patriots-Steelers game without either Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger starting at quarterback since Week 14 of the 1998 season.
- New England head coach Belichick is 59-33 ATS following a loss (8-7 ATS since Tom Brady left New England).
- The New Orleans Saints are 13-7 ATS in their past 20 games as a home underdog.
- Carolina quarterback Baker Mayfield was 2-6 in eight road games last season (4-2 at home). His 41 Total QBR on the road ranked 25th in NFL.
- The Carolina Panthers are 5-13 ATS in the past two seasons, tied with the Jaguars for the worst mark in the NFL, including 2-13 ATS in their past 15 games.
- The New York Jets are 1-9 ATS in their past 10 September games and failed to cover each of the past seven.
- Washington Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz is 5-0 ATS (4-1 outright) in his past five games as a road underdog.
- The Los Angeles Rams are attempting to avoid becoming the fifth defending Super Bowl champion to start the season 0-2, and the first since the Broncos did so in 1999.
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