Game: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Odds: Ravens -7.5, Dolphins +7.5
The Miami Dolphins entered the 2021 season with playoff expectations. Head coach Brian Flores had taken the team to a 10-6 record in 2020 and the team just missed the postseason. The new campaign started with a win. Then, the train came off the tracks. Miami lost seven straight before finally winning another game. Last week, the Dolphins beat one of the few teams with a record (1-8) worse than their own 2-7. That team was Houston.
Now, Flores and Miami welcome 6-2 Baltimore to Hard Rock Stadium. The Ravens lead the AFC North and they lead the recent series against the Dolphins. Baltimore is 9-0 ATS in the last nine games against the Dolphins and, more recently, the Ravens have outscored Miami 137-16 in the last three meetings.
It’s possible that continues tonight. The Ravens have the No. 1-ranked rushing offense in the league (161.6 ypg). It’s no secret that the success of the Ravens offense runs through the quarterback position and former league MVP Lamar Jackson. Jackson is Baltimore’s leading rusher with 600 yards and he has completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,209 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Tonight, Jackson will go up against a struggling Miami defense. The Dolphins rank 17th against the run, but the pass defense is just awful. Miami allows 280.9 yards a game. That’s 30th in the NFL. The Dolphins are also 27th in scoring defense allowing 26.9 points per game. It’s tough to win games in the NFL when you give up that many points. It’s even harder when your offense is a work in progress.
Even last week against a very poor Houston team, the Dolphins struggled on offense. Miami ran for just 42 yards and they turned the ball over five times. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa continues to be his mediocre self. He is one of the reasons why Miami has scored 20 or fewer points in five of their last six games.
Going back to the Ravens-Dolphins series, Baltimore has won eight of last nine. Remember, they covered in all nine of those games. In the last three, the Ravens have won by blowout scores of 59-10, 40-0, and 38-6. While Baltimore has had great success against Miami, the Ravens are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall. They failed to cover their last two games, one as a 6.5-point favorite in a loss to Cincinnati and last week as a 7-point favorite against Minnesota.
The Dolphins are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games. Last week’s 17-9 win over Houston as a 4-point favorite is their only cover in those six games. However, Miami has had success against the spread at home. In their last 14 games at Hard Rock Stadium, the Dolphins have covered in 10 of them. They are also just 0-6 ATS when playing at home against Baltimore.