Game: Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Time: 8:15 p.m.
Odds: Bills -3.5, Patriots +3.5
Total: 43.5
The Buffalo Bills (8-3 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) take on the Patriots in New England tonight in what could prove to be a crucial AFC East matchup. After losing to Minnesota on the road last Thursday night, New England is 6-5 SU (6-4-1 ATS). Due to a significant snowstorm in Buffalo, Buffalo’s last two games were both played in Detroit. The Bills beat the Browns in the Motor City then followed it up with a Thanksgiving Day victory over the Lions.
Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS over its last five contests and they lost two of those outright. The Bills can take sole possession of first place in the AFC East with a win over the Patriots. The Dolphins play at NFC West leader San Francisco on Sunday. It’s an important game for the Patriots as well as they try and make the playoffs for the second straight season.
Buffalo kicks off a stretch of contests that could decide the AFC East champion. Buffalo will face the Patriots, New York Jets, and Dolphins in the next three games. They should be in a strong position to win the division title for the third consecutive year if they can win three in a row.
The rest of the Bills’ defense will have to step up and try to keep New England to 20 points or fewer since LB Von Miller will be out while he recovers from a knee injury he sustained last Thursday. The Bills gave up 20 or more points in each of their last four games. Don’t forget, two of those games ended in a Bills loss.
In the loss to Minnesota last week, the Patriots’ defense likely played its worst game of the year. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins threw a season-high three touchdown passes, and the Patriots’ special teams group allowed a 97-yard kickoff return for a score. The good news for the Patriots is that head coach Bill Belichick is an all-time great who hardly ever allows his team to have two consecutive weeks of subpar play. The fact that Mac Jones, the Patriots quarterback, had a season-high 382 passing yards and two touchdowns in the defeat is also a plus.
In six of its last eight victories in the series against the Bills, New England has scored at least 23 points. Additionally, the Patriots have scored at least 22 points in each of their last five wins this season. For New England, reaching three touchdowns might be essential.
The Bills are just 4-16 SU in their last 20 road games in New England, despite being 4-1 SU in their last five overall against the Patriots. In seven of the Bills’ last nine games, the Under has cashed. The Over has prevailed in four of the previous six games between the Patriots and Bills. The total opened at 45.5 and has dropped to 43.5. Over the last ten games between the two teams, they have averaged 42.1 points per game.
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