Oskeim Sports provides an NFL game preview and free sports pick in Sunday’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers. Oskeim’s betting market report gives you the winning edge.
Arizona Cardinals (+1) (-110) at Carolina Panthers
Analysis: Since October 30, 2016, NFC favorites of -2 or less are just 12-36-1 SU and 10-37-2 ATS versus opponents not from the NFC East, failing to cover the spread by an average of 6.5 points per game. Since 2018, small underdogs of four points or less that won eleven or more games the previous regular season are 38-14 SU and 40-12 ATS in Weeks 1-9, covering the spread by an average of 7.53 points per game.
Since 2009, NFL home favorites of less than four points in Weeks 1-5 are 5-33 SU and 1-36 ATS if they are averaging fewer than 28:00 time of possession and are allowing an average of 5.5 or more third down conversions per game. These teams have failed to cover the spread by an average of 9.64 points per game over that span.
Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury is 18-7-2 ATS away from home, including 14-4-1 ATS as a road underdog during the regular season (9-1 ATS L/10). Arizona has won seven straight games outright as a road underdog, tied for the longest streak since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. Kingsbury is 8-3 ATS in East Coast affairs during his tenure with Arizona, including 7-2 ATS following a home game.
The Panthers are 1-9 SU and ATS in their past ten games as home favorites (0-4 L/4) and have lost seven consecutive games as favorites. Carolina is just 5-13 SU and ATS at home under head coach Matt Rhule, including 2-7 SU and ATS as a favorite. Let’s also note that the Panthers are 3-14 ATS in their past seventeen games overall, including 3-10 ATS as favorites under Rhule. Since November 5, 2018, the Panthers are 0-12 SU and ATS as favorites versus opponents with a win percentage of less than .400.
Arizona has struggled on both sides of the ball this season:
- In 2021, Arizona posted an explosive play differential of plus-16, which meant it produced 16 more explosive plays on offense than it allowed on defense. The plus-16 margin was the eighth-best figure in the league.
- This season, the Cardinals have posted an explosive play differential of minus-18, which is the worst mark in the NFL.
- The Cardinals are blitzing at the league’s highest rate, but they are only 19th in the league in pressure rate.
- Opposing passers are 35-of-49 for 329 yards and seven touchdowns against Arizona’s blitzes this season (league’s fifth-worst QB).
Arizona applies to very good 46-4 ATS and 41-2 ATS contrarian systems of mine that date to 2007 and invest on certain road underdogs of five points or less during the first five weeks of the regular season. Take the Cardinals and invest with confidence.
NFL Betting Trends & Nuggets for Sunday, October 2
- Cleveland is 8-15 ATS as a favorite under head coach Kevin Stefanski (2-4 ATS as a road favorite).
- Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in nonconference games under Kevin Stefanski and has covered 10 of the last 11 meetings with Atlanta dating back to 1978.
- Baltimore is 12-2-1 ATS when the line is priced between +3 and -3 since 2019.
- Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh is 29-19-2 ATS as an underdog of at least three points.
- Through 49 games this season, the under is 31-18 (63.3%), the best start for the under since 1996.
- In the last 20 years, teams playing on short rest (six days or fewer) after playing the Giants or Jets in New York are 9-20 SU and 5-24 ATS in their next game.
- Teams coming off a road game in Miami are 57-79-4 ATS (41.9%), making Miami the least profitable previous road city in the last 20 years.
- In the last 20 years, teams returning home off a road trip (two or more road games) on short rest (six days or fewer) are just 67-82-5 ATS.
- NFL underdogs in games with an over/under below 42 are 92-57-4 ATS (61.7%) since 2018. In the first eight weeks of the regular season, these underdogs are an even better 46-23-1 ATS (66.7%).
- Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady is 38-8 ATS after a loss when not laying 7 points or more (4-0 ATS with Tampa Bay), including 19-3 SU and 21-2 ATS when his team is favored by two or less to an underdog.
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